Koyo 2014 forecast

Hi All,

I am doing research for the Koyo 2014 forecast. I see the pattern could be based from the summer within the year (whether it's a long or delayed summer).

I wonder
1. how is the summer this year 2014 for Tokyo, Kyoto & Western Japan area? Was it hotter and longer than usual?

2. And as far as I concern, the winter 2013 worldwide was one of the coolest and longest as well with heavy snowy still could be found until Feb-March in some countries. I just wonder if the winter 2013 in Japan was also prolonged one and would it affect the summer to be prolonged too hence causing any slightest delay to Tokyo, Kyoto & Western Japan's koyo 2014?

Many thanks for your time and attention

Cheers

Wow, you're research is going to be soooo scientifically accurate done on this forum, haha

lol @Tokyonet

I'm in Gunma (Kanto area) and my area tends to be the most extreme compared to the rest of the country. To answer your questions,

1. This summer was not hotter and longer... in fact, we had more days than I can ever remember that were cloudy and cooler, almost like it was tsuyu season all over again. Usually September is still pretty hot into October, but the past two days, while sunny, have been beautifully cooler. It feels like October now... LATE October. I hope it keeps, it's fantastic.

2. Winter was the worst we've had that I've ever experienced, and even older folks commented on it. It wasn't necessarily any longer, but my area, which rarely gets a lot of snow, got positively dumped on. I thought I'd gone to sleep in Gunma and woken up in Niigata. But it didn't seem to affect tsuyu season or summer time-wise.

Kouyou is pretty hard to predict, just like the cherry blossoms. If you are planning a trip to try and hit it, I would look at past years, plan your dates accordingly, then try and hit several spots around the country. You are bound to hit them at some point. Trying to predict based on past weather is going to be hit or miss.

tokyonet
yupp , i successfully experienced the 2012 cherry blossom peak bloom based on research and helpful members of this forum. one hella' unforgettable experience i must say after all those hardwork research :D

scarred dragon
Thank you kindly for your information. your info is always more than a help. So since the 2014 summer is not affected by the 2013 harsh winter and seems to be average in temperature, may i ask your opinion of when do you think the peak koyo would be in Kyoto this year 2014?

Would you think that the koyo would be earlier or back to average schedule which is around 22-25Nov for Kyoto?

One more thing, would the cherry blossom season has any effect with koyo? the cherry blossom for 2014 arrived a quite early than few years back which was 3rd of April peak bloom in Kyoto and 31st of March in Tokyo. Perhaps it was due to early bloom in 2013 too but Koyo 2013 was back to average peak schedule on 22Nov2013.

Would a slightly early cherry blossom peak bloom affect the koyo season too? Or the koyo is predominantly effected by the summer?

I really appreciate any suggestion.

Best Regards

As far as I know, cherry blossoms don't affect koyo at all. Koyo is affected by how cool it gets how quickly. You need several cool nights with warmer days to bring on the koyo, and honestly, it's been pretty chilly nights lately. I don't think it is cool enough to bring on the koyo THIS early, but if this kind of weather keeps up, it could very well cause koyo to be earlier this year.

However, I by NO means keep track of temperature with regards to koyo, so take my info with some skepticism and realize I don't really know what I'm talking about when it comes to predictions! I just see it when it gets here, so...

scarred dragon

many thanks for the response. I'm going to focus on the current summer then. one more thing, by 'early' you mean it could peak on 2nd half of November ie. 17-19Nov or it wouldn't be and was never that much early in the pass eventhough the summer is chiller than usual.

Please don't get burdensome by my question. i am just collecting opinions and infos especially from people who lives in Japan because you should know better about the seasonal condition. It's just a prediction and I'm just trying my best too afterall :)

As far as I know, the most reliable forecast is that from Japan Meteorological Association.

It depends solely on the average temperature of September.

http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/press/0709/27a/koyo2007.pdf

y=4.62*T-47.61

y: days after October 1st.
T: average temperature at the point, such as Tokyo.

So, it is too early to predict the date for the maximum color.

Note that this is just a "rule of thumb", and many people think the most important factor should be the lowest temperatures of several days: Autumn color is said to develop when the minimum temperature of the day is under 8�‹C, which is accelerated further by the temperature under 5�‹C.

When asking when the 'colors/koyo' will peak...each tree changes and peaks then begins to 'fall' independently!...for example there could be one hundred trees in the garden and 20 may begin to change, a week after another 20 may begin to change, another week etc.etc., some trees will have 'peaked' in intense colour and begin falling as others are just reaching their peak. This is the beauty of Autumn, greens, yellows, red leaves on the trees and falling to a beautiful carpet of colour on the ground. Some trees may stand alone exposed to the elements while others are sheltered against a wall or building and may change earlier or later etc. So, 'predictions are impossible, plus heavy rain and wind can change the landscape overnight. Why would you want to try and predict such a season?...is there any worthwhile purpose????... will 'humanity' benefit from your quest?.

will 'humanity' benefit from your quest?.

I am sure a lot of tourists will !!

frog1954
thank you kindly for providing such reliable info. Sorry my Japanese is poor, so I was just roughly understand the link you provided. The link that you provide it was for a report providing the new equation formula peak autumn forecast right? The conclusion itself that the autumn is delayed was for 2007.
So it's better to wait until September ends to get the average temperature. Where could I get an accurate information of average temperature? if possible an English website. I used Accuweather in the past but lately it's missed horribly like last summer when I was in Hokkaido, it was forecasted in Accu to be raining with thunderstrom whilst my friend who lives in Japan said that the local forecast said otherwise and she was right.


barrieaw
Last time I had the chance of hitting the peak bloom of Sakura and it was definitely a different feeling than when it was still budding. Call it luck or was it because of my research well at least my hardwork paid off and that's another different feeling of accomplishment right. I witnessed the sakura when it was budding, 50-80% opening until it withered and went back to leaves just within days of my journey. The best definitely when you could witness the full bloom! and for tourist such as myself, this might be the only chance I could witness that. So based on that, well why not put a lil' bit of work if it could pay off at the end of the day.
why do we have to settle for the second best if we could have the chance of having the best ;)

lostintranslation
yesss thank you for understanding me, as tourists this might be our only chance. well of course if i have more money and time and health, i'd love to go back to Japan as many times as I'd like :D old folks told me you do need 3 LUCKS to do travelling : money time and health so use it wisely, u might not get a second chance :D

Sorry, I have not read the thread in any details, but just give my general opinion on the general topic:

The colors in Hokkaido have appeared way earlier than in previous years:
http://www.wakasaresort.com/asahidakeropeway/blog/?p=2852

As for the temperatures:

Last 30 days:
below average nationwide

Last 60-90 days:
average in eastern and northern Japan
below average in western Japan

Source:
http://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/data/mdrr/tenkou/indexTenkouTem30d...

As for the long term forecasts (which I don't trust), it is average for October and November.

Source:
http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/longfcst/

Based on the above, I expect an early koyo season this year.

I expect an early koyo season this year.

I agree with Uji.

You can check the weather data from JMA site.

http://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/etrn/index.php

It is in Japanese, but google translate will give you rather useful information.

https://translate.google.co.jp/translate?sl=ja&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=j...

The average temperature (for recent 20 years, maybe) of the first ten days of the month in Kyoto is 26.2�‹C while this year it is 25.1�‹C. The second ten days average is 22.5�‹C this year (though it is not completed) while the past 20 year's average is 24.2�‹C. That says, the autumn will come earlier this year by 5 to 10 days. Of course, this is just my prediction :).

I don't know how "early" to expect; but last night/this morning in Gunma we hit 11 degrees Celsius, very chilly for September! I don't remember ever having a cooler early fall in my 6 years here!

'Josie Yu'...I respect your 'dedication' to this project, it would be interesting to see if your 'research and results' are accurate. Please post your results later in November to see if you were correct in your forecast. It will be interesting to see if you were able to predict within reasonable accuracy the Autumn timing, I'm particularly interested in the Kansai Region, Kyoto and Nara. Good luck.

got a ticket to japan already at november20th hope get a peak of KOYO season in kyoto #crossfinger

Me too, I arrive 20th till 3rd Dec. based on 'my' visit last year and in 2012...the most colourful time in Kyoto was ''23 Nov. till 6 Dec. I had a combination of trees just changing, some already reaching their 'peak' ( full colour) and falling leaves upon the paths, lanterns and beautiful Temple roofs!, Autumn (Aki) is a most beautiful season in Japan and especially around the Kyoto area. It will be interesting to see how this year pans out, and as there are so many 'trees' in different area you will see many shades and variations of changing colours, the hotels usually have a notice board with photos and up-dates in their foyers showing where the colours have begun and peaked etc. 'Enjoy!'.

at november 20th hope get a peak of KOYO season in kyoto #crossfinger

I have been to Kyoto many times during the koyo season, November 20th is good timing, no need to " crossfinger "; however , a visit to the tourist information centre for the best koyo of the day is highly recommended.

uji, frog1954, scarred dragon
Thank You All for the information given. I really appreciate it. I've read the autumn past reports since 2009. Based on that for Kyoto Arashiyama area, the best autumn vivid colour came around 22-28 Nov (w/ exception of huge delay in 2012). Would it be possible even for this year the best vivid colour come as early as 15-19th Nov? In this case, a week earlier than average in the past year.

Uji
the Hokkaido report that u provide, in which area has the autumn started? Has it even gone down to the lower elevation or still in the mountainous area? My friend is going to Hokkaido this late Sept and I do wish for her to get the peak autumn in Daisetsuzan at least :)

frog1954
Thank You so much for the average temperature info in Kyoto. I would keep an eye for the rest of Sept temperature

setiawanlucky
20th nov i think it should still be a good choice of date. I was thinking of flying on the same date too but still waiting for the early progress of autumn. I might book the ticket on earlier dates. Which flight do you use? I think we are from the same country based on your last nickname :D

lostintranslation, i hope so, but looks like this year will be 1-2week earlier based report from hokkaido area. do you think it will be peak time at around nov 20th or maybe declining already?

josie yu wow great, ill go via KL lol how bout you have u decided yet? looks like better go a week earlier based on recent report. IMO

Absouletely impossible to predict with any accuracy!...just like the volcano eruption last week!...and...there is another Typhoon about to hit mainland Japan this week. The wind, rain and temperatures will certainly have an effect on the growtha nd cycle of all flora. Working on last years weather patterns can at best only be a guide, definitely not accurate predictions for this year. But, i'm watching this report with interest to see how it pans out...exactly 'what' is the prediction for this Autumn??? or are you waiting for it to happen before posting your prediction?. For travellers planning to visit Kansai area the time for booking is now, already hotels are full. Again, good luck with your predictions.