Tokyo hotel prices higher than last year?

I spent the first week of January 2016 in Tokyo and plan to do the same in January 2017. What I am finding is that hotel prices have increased dramatically compared to last year.

Is that a general/valid observation or am I simply too early to book at the best prices (knowing that many hotels in Japan only start taking reservations 3-4 months in advance)? Last year I booked in September, so I am a few weeks earlier than last year.

A lot of places won't open bookings until 3 months ahead (but they tend open all bookings for the month on the first day of the month three months prior; e.g. all January bookings open October 1st). A lot of accommodations offer discounts for booking early, so just keep an eye out for when their bookings do open!

Are you talking in yen or your own home currency? If the later, then the yen has progressively been getting stronger this 12 to 18 months, so your money wont go as far as it did 12 months ago.

If you are talking in yen. I cannot say I have noticed huge increases at all.

I went to Japan when 1 Euro was 100 Yens, so for me, now they are cheaper. I also work in UK, so I can choose to pay in Euros or Pounds, depending on which one is stronger :D

In Tokyo I stayed in a Hostel for 32 Euros per night and per person, in Asakusa. If you try to book there in February (the latest month in their calendar) it costs about 75 Euros per person. But for 30 Euros you can get a better place than in my example.

I think that not only the currency matters, but also the month (I went in May a few years ago, but the next year I'm going in March, and for 30 Euros we will get a much better hotel, which for me is incredible).

Is that a general/valid observation or am I simply too early to book at the best prices (knowing that many hotels in Japan only start taking reservations 3-4 months in advance)?

This. Try again in a month or two and the prices and selection will likely be better. If you are worried then book now somewhere with a good cancellation policy (basically most places should give 100% refunds up to a few days before the booked date), and then continue to shop around for something better.

Thank for these answers. I am comparing prices in JPY and they are in general between 30% and 50% higher than last year. For many hotels even more than that.

I guess the plan is to wait a few more weeks.

As an observation, the hotels I regularly book are the same price as a year or even two years ago.

Hotels in many major cities, especially Tokyo, have become more expensive, starting from around 2 years ago, especially for short-term reservations. It is simply due to the tourist boom. As for your specific case, it may be a different cause.

In my opinion, yes. I have a few favorite hotels which I stay at year after year, and while I use get a single room for around 6500 to 8500 yen I now have to budget between 8000 to 10000 yen

It seems to be 50-50 split that some see increases and some don't?

So maybe it is a certain type of hotel that has seen big increases? While others only raise a little?