Traveling on Shinkansen 30th Dec

Hi Everyone,

I've been reading a few things about it being hard to travel on the shinkansen from Tokyo to Osaka in the lead up to new years.

I will be arriving at Tokyo Narita on the morning of the 30th December 2016 (this year the 30th of dec is a Friday) at 9am and want to get from Tokyo to Osaka on the shinkansen that day as soon as possible, as we have accomodation booked in Osaka the night of the 30th.

Obviously we are buying JR passes but I know you can't activate those and reserve tickets till you get to japan so essentially we wouldn't be able to reserve tickets till the 30th when we would want to be getting on a train to Osaka.

How crowded will the trains be? What are the chances of getting to Osaka? What is our best plan to try and get on a shinkansen as soon as possible?

Any help at all is greatly appreciated.

Using a JR Pass is probably a bad idea, because it severely restricts the trains you can use, and pretty much guarantees that your train will be packed (because people going back to their hometowns in the countryside can't take Nozomi trains either since it does not stop at minor stations).

If I were you, I'd buy a plane ticket to Osaka, since you can book it now and there are still some at reasonable prices.

Appreciate the advice.

Basically it would be a super last resort to book a flight because we are wanting to use the JR pass for this journey otherwise we won't get as much value out of it. I don't mind if it's busy on the trains or if we have to stand up (I can sit on my luggage), I just basically want to know will we physically get on a train from Tokyo to osaka at around 10am on the 30th of December? Or how long do people think we will need to wait to get on a train with non reserved seats at this time?

around 10am on the 30th of December? Or how long do people think we will need to wait to get on a train with non reserved seats at this time?

e.g , if you are taking the 10:00 train, best to queue by 09:00 .

How???
http://www.news24.jp/articles/2015/12/30/07318590.html
If couldn't play above by "IP address block(out of Japan)" watch below.
https://youtu.be/YKv0Z5GaPI8
0:17-21 is Shinkansen Non-reserved seat car at Tokyo looks pretty bad :(

In that date a lot of seasonal fastest shinkanen "Nozomi" increased
but Japan Rail Pass holder cannot take/book Nozomi.
Slower Hikari and Kodama(Pass covered) have more non-reserved cars than Nozomi
but operate numbers not so many just getting a seat chance a bit higher.
Hikari : 2 trains/1hr(next is 30 min later) about
Kodama : 1 train/1hr (fixed) non-reserved car more than Hikari but slowest will stop all stns.
Nozomi : 9 trains max/1hr (on peak hour)
All shinkansen 16 cars about 1300 seats but not enough.

Each car have 2 doors about 100 seats
(except front/end cars with opetators room and long nose)
so waiting line under 40 travelers you can get the seat.
Over 40 to 50 is no safe depends on other side travelers entering speed.
So above video travelers did pushing/pressing reason is this.
But pushing/pressing is not always if busy week.
https://wordleaf.c.yimg.jp/wordleaf/thepage/images/20141230-00000016-w...
http://seasonitems.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/%E6%96%B0%E5%B9%B9%E7%B7%9A%E3%83%A9%E3%83%83%E3%82%B7%E3%83%A5.jpg
http://www.sankei.com/images/news/150812/wst1508120049-p1.jpg

Take afternoon Hikari a bit better.
Waiting line is in two rows.
http://art12.photozou.jp/pub/874/141874/photo/24434291.jpg
Peak hours a lot of navigate sign boads/plates staff standing.
http://vpoint.jp/wtview/wp-content/uploads/ph131229-1.jpg
最後尾(sai-kou-bi) means waiting line END.

Oops, I forgot most important thing...
N'EX to Tokaido Shinkansen "for West" Nagoya,Kyoto,Osaka and more
basically transfering at 2nd stop Shinagawa usual by shorter distance than Tokyo.
But in this case no escape transfering at train dep/end station Tokyo.
At Shinagawa non-reserved travelers are no chance.

NRT ticket counter staff also recommend late after peak trains.

Just try to book your seats when you arrive. If you cannot get seats, then go for the non-reserved seating, and aim to arrive and queue 60 minutes in advance.

send your heavy luggage at Narita airport to your hotel in Osaka. That will arrive on Dec. 31. You can move more freely and easily.

Thank you everyone, this is really helpful.

@WS - Thank you for all of this help, really useful info. I keep reading that the late afternoon/evening trains are better like you said, I'm just worried that because the 30th is a Friday locals will stay at work till Friday afternoon and then make their way home?

@Ken, that might be a pretty good idea. How would we organise for this to happen? and what is the approximate cost?

So basically it looks like we'll try and reserve tickets when we arrive at Narita airport and if we don't get them race to Tokyo station to start queuing for the non-reserved seats (which may take around an hour to get on) sounds like it'll be absolutely crazy but I guess it's all part of the fun.

Does anyone have any last hot tips for queueing for the non-reserved seating? Will it be obvious where to queue being non-japanese speakers?