Cherry blossom questions before departure

Hi to everyone, I would ask you some questione before going to Japan:
1) On 7-8-9 April in Tokyo city do you think I'll see something? I have seen that Chiyoda and Ueno Sakura festival both will close on 8 April, instead Meguro festival will close on 10 April and MidTown festival on 15 April. Is it possible to see something good except cherry new leafs? What spot do you suggest me for that days?
2) On 11 April I'll be in Kyoto. Where can I see some cherry flowers?
3) About Nikko, Yoshino and Chureito Pagoda what are the best days to see the blossom?
Thanks

Here is the current forecast:
https://www.japan-guide.com/sakura/

On 7-8-9 April in Tokyo city do you think I'll see something?

The main season will be over in central Tokyo. This page provides some options:
https://www.japan-guide.com/e/e3050_late.html

2) On 11 April I'll be in Kyoto. Where can I see some cherry flowers?

Same for Kyoto:
https://www.japan-guide.com/e/e3951_late.html

3) About Nikko, Yoshino and Chureito Pagoda what are the best days to see the blossom?

See the forecast link above for Yoshino and the Chureito Pagoda (Fuji Five Lakes). As for Nikko, I am not aware of any famous cherry blossom spot.

I�fm following all the forecast website comprise this from late January and no one that has huessed the forecast... :)
Do I have to trust?
In other websites for example Chureito Pagoda seems that blossom early, so I don�ft understand any more 🙄

Yes, I'm quite sure you will see a great deal. Today is the first day I'm really "recognizing" blossoms here in Greater Tokyo, and they're not yet at its best. I've been watching out for blossoms every year for decades here, and I would say that you will most likely see trees looking very beautiful with its petals scattering in the air on your dates.

What they call "festivals" are usually a small event held at a very tiny part of the blossoming area. Live dancing and music may be shown. But local restaurants and shops put out their stalls every weekend while the crowd is out there for the blossoms, and those things are much more entertaining than the "festivals". Weekdays are quieter, but you can still enjoy walking under the blossoms or doing a picnic at parks. So it's up to you to enjoy the stalls or to enjoy the peace.

I'm sure you've done your homework of searching the major spots, but cherry blossoms are very visible, so they can be spotted from a far away place such as a tower or an overground train window. Just look around and go for it.

But the bigger the area, the more crowd it attracts. So you may also want to enjoy places where there is just one or two trees. Each tree is quite big, so it's nice enough just standing under one tree in a less crowded quiet area. The season is still chilly, so sometimes it's even better to visit small areas instead of doing a long walk/picnic.

Hope you have fun!

Hi UCO, thanks to encourage me 😂, but I think that in the central part of Tokyo (7-8-9 april) and Kyoto (11 april) I�fll not see the petals falling... I would say that it was my favourite moment, but on the basis of forecasts and reports I think that for my favourite spots that are Chiyoda and Meguri I�fll not see petals falling, but only branch with new leafs. 😭
Don�ft you think so?

In other websites for example Chureito Pagoda seems that blossom early

Yes, the trees around the Chureito Pagoda are usually a few days ahead of those around Lake Kawaguchiko. At this point, I would forecast them to be best from around April 11-12. But it depends on the temperatures of the next three weeks, which humans cannot predict accurately yet.

Do I have to trust?

There are some really bad cherry blossom forecasts available in English by websites that published the forecast once and haven't updated them ever since or by website operators who have no idea about the cherry blossoms (at best they just blindly copy the data from other websites). japan-guide.com has the most reliable forecasts in English. They are updated daily by people who have observed and studied the cherry blossoms for many years. But they, too, can easily lose against nature's will, e.g. the season can get cut short by a storm which often can be predicted only half a dozen days in advance or even less.

The following website, for example, is utterly wrong when it comes to predicting the Fuji Five Lakes. I have no idea how they came up with the figures:
https://planetyze.com/en/japan/tokyo/blog/sakura-cherry-blossom-foreca...
Generally their dates are very inaccurate, but the ones for the Fuji Five Lakes in particular so.

Cherry blossoms along Meguro River seem to have already reached the full bloom. You could enjoy them online here.
http://marzac7-nakameguro.com

We had snow this Wednesday. But cherry trees appear to grow rapidly after that. In my neighborhood, cherry blossoms were at 10% this Thursday, 30% yesterday, and now 50% today. I expect they will be in full bloom on the coming Monday. That is earlier than this forecast by WeatherNews issued yesterday. Theirs are the following.
Meguro River: Mar 24 (full bloom) - 29 (sakura blizzard)
Jingu Gaien: Mar 26 - Apr 1
Chidorigafuchi: Mar 27 - 31
Ueno Park: Mar 28 - Apr 1
Inokashira Park: Mar 30 - Apr 4
https://weathernews.jp/s/topics/201803/220085/

Basically, sakura forecasts should be less accurate than weather forecasts. They use weather forecasts as a base for sakura predictions. I usually see weather forecasts both for a week and for ten days, but I decide what to do after I see a forecast on the day.

This is a current situation.
https://weathernews.jp/s/report/map/sakura.html?data=spot
You may check their predictions here.
http://weathernews.jp/sakura/#//ddm=simu_
If you prefer English sites, I recommend these two.
https://n-kishou.com/corp/news-contents/sakura/news2018.html?lang=en
https://sakura.weathermap.jp/en.php

With all the caveats above, the followings could be some clues. These results are collected by a sakura search tool.

Tokyo, Apr 7
7 hits: https://weathernews.jp/s/sakura/search_result.html?area=TOKYO&mon=4&da...
Hamarikyu: Mar 29 - Apr 6 https://weathernews.jp/s/sakura/spot/4425/index.html
Hikarigaoka Park: Mar 30 - Apr 6 https://weathernews.jp/s/sakura/spot/4412/index.html
Musashino Park: Apr 1 - 6 https://weathernews.jp/s/sakura/spot/4421/index.html
Hamura: Apr 2 - 9 https://weathernews.jp/s/sakura/spot/111/index.html
Showa Memorial Park: Apr 2 - 10 https://weathernews.jp/s/sakura/spot/4404/index.html
Sayama Park: Apr 4 - 10 https://weathernews.jp/s/sakura/spot/110/index.html
Komine Park (Somei Yoshino): Apr 4 - 11 https://weathernews.jp/s/sakura/spot/4484/index.html
Tokyo SummerLand: Apr 4 - 11 https://weathernews.jp/s/sakura/spot/4487/index.html
Lake Okutama: Apr 9 - 15 https://weathernews.jp/s/sakura/spot/112/index.html
Komine Park (Yamazakura): Apr 10 - 14 https://weathernews.jp/s/sakura/spot/113/index.html
Almost all are in West Tokyo.

Kyoto, Apr 11
6 hits: https://weathernews.jp/s/sakura/search_result.html?area=KYOTO&mon=4&da...
Heian Jingu: Apr 1 - 11 https://weathernews.jp/s/sakura/spot/295/index.html
Arashiyama: Apr 2 - 10 https://weathernews.jp/s/sakura/spot/301/index.html
Uji Bridge: Apr 2 - 10 https://weathernews.jp/s/sakura/spot/337/index.html
Kyoraku Park: Apr 4 - 10 https://weathernews.jp/s/sakura/spot/6101/index.html
Sanzenin: Apr 4 - 15 https://weathernews.jp/s/sakura/spot/6103/index.html
Ninnaji: Apr 7 - 10 https://weathernews.jp/s/sakura/spot/299/index.html
Sanzenin in North Kyoto would be the most promising.

Nikko
Nikko Kaido from Utsunomiya to Nikko is popular. Rinnoji has a later blooming tree.
Nikko Kaido: No forecast found. Mid-April is an average.
Rinnoji: Apr 23 - 27 http://weathernews.jp/sakura/pinpoint/?id=4108

Yoshino is a whole mountain. They divide the area into four. This is an official forecast.
Shimosenbon: Apr 3
Nakasenbon: Apr 5
Kamisenbon: Apr 7
Okusenbon: Apr 12
https://www.town.yoshino.nara.jp/kanko-event/kanouki/kaika/
And this is by a weather company.
Shimosenbon: Apr 8 - 13 http://weathernews.jp/sakura/pinpoint/?id=346
Nakasenbon: Apr 10 - 14 http://weathernews.jp/sakura/pinpoint/?id=345
Kamisenbon: Apr 11 - 14 http://weathernews.jp/sakura/pinpoint/?id=344
Okusenbon: Apr 16 - 19 http://weathernews.jp/sakura/pinpoint/?id=6408
In any case, you would be likely to enjoy sakura there.

Chureito is only popular among foreigners. I could not find any forecast site in Japanese.
Lake Kawaguchi: Apr 11 https://sp.jorudan.co.jp/hanami/spot_208.html
Cherry Blossom Festival might miss the full bloom entirely. But you might be able to encounter the full bloom there.
http://www.fujisan.ne.jp.e.aca.hp.transer.com/event/info.php?no=775
Shibazakura could be much favorable, then: http://www.shibazakura.jp/eng/

Thanks very much.
I'm seeing japan guide forecast and I'm thinking to modify a little bit the itinerary going on 10 April to Kanazawa.
Do you think I'll see full bloom in the gardens? Thanks

If WeatherMap became a winner among the three below, you could not see a full bloom. The current best for Kanazawa would be Apr 7 (Apr 6 - Apr 8). This is just a guess, though. All of them, including me, expected a slow down with snow, but we all failed.

Kanazawa (last updated on Mar 26): Mar 30 (first bloom) - Apr 4 (full bloom) https://sakura.weathermap.jp/en.php
Kanazawa (last updated on ?): Apr 5 (full bloom?) - Apr 13 (sakura blizzard?) https://www.japan-guide.com/sakura/
Kenrokuen (last upadted on Mar 27): Apr 2 (first bloom) - Apr 5 (50%) - Apr 6 (full bloom) - Apr 11 (sakura blizzard) https://weathernews.jp/s/sakura/spot/257/index.html

Ok, but if the full bloom is on 4 or 5 april I think on 10 April it will be however a good situation.
Don�ft you think?

I just shifted the WeatherNews window of Apr 6 - Apr 10 by two days earlier in order to match it to the WeatherMap full bloom, resulting a new window of Apr 4 - Apr 8. Sakura blizzard itself is a wonderful moment, but after that, there is no more beauty at all. So, I dropped the blizzard day itself. Then, I took a common part of the three; Apr 4 - Apr 8, Apr 5 - Apr 12, and Apr 6 - Apr 10, giving a window of Apr 6 - Apr 8.

Anyway, just after full bloom should be the best. Cherry blossom is still fresh. If you hear a notice of full bloom, the true 100% would be the next day or so.

First bloom 10%
Full bloom 80%
Sakura blizzard (100)-50%

Thanks!
I have thought about some variations on the basis of the blossom situation.
On 10 April of sure I'll visit Matsumoto castle that should be in a good situation about the blossom.
The variation is Kanazawa in the case it's in a good situation, or Takaosan mount, or Hikone castle before going to Kyoto, also if the last should be in the final phase with great part of fallen petals.
What can you suggest to me?
Moreover on 14 April I wanted to go to Yoshino but I think I'll see few or no oneflower in that day.

I'm a little disappointed with all the websites that do the forecast.
I understand that it depends on weather and other conditions, but dates are changing every single day and it's very difficult to plan a trip.
For example now it seems in Kanazawa on 10 April the situation will be not so good. So I think that at this point I'll not go there.
It has been anticipated also in Matsumoto, but on 10 April it should be however a good moment to see them.
At this point on 10 I'll go in Matsumoto, but I would add another place before going in the evening to Kyoto.
Something to suggest? I was thinking to go in Hikone also if there are not many flowers.
I think however that if the temperature is high, if it doesn't rain flowers will last more.

I admit sakura hunting should be very difficult. Any forecast should be regarded only as a mere guess. Your dates are far from now, compared with accuracies of predictions. How about making three scenarios; standard, early, and late cases?

I think catching the best phase of Sakura during moves could be scheduled just before a few days advance. The best is staying at one place, such as in Tokyo, and deciding the target on the day of a move. I mean a set of (long) day trips should work nicely.

The share of Somei Yoshino could be more than 90% of all the Sakura in Japan. Somei Yoshino is a clone. All Somei Yoshino share the same DNA. So, they bloom almost at the same time and fall petals similarly. The slight variations come from whether trees are in an open space with no shades or under a shade, near the water such as a river, and so on. Just at the time of full bloom, 80%, blossoms near the ground could be 90% while 70% at the top. The ground could be warmer.

After full bloom announced, blossoms near the ground grow 100% and then start to show fresh green leaves. If I call such situation to be 110%, the top could be 90%. The mean is 100%, but some people do not like green leaves. They prefer the status of a mean 90%. The others love pink carpets. The top should be reached 100% or more to produce fallen petals. The lower parts could be in 120% or more, then. The blossoms could get more pinkish and sakura blizzard could happen soon.

If WeatherNews got a success, your 14th could be one of the ideal days for Yoshino. We have had very good days after the last snow in Tokyo. Such sunny days should not last forever. Some start to forecast a rainy day on Apr 7 in a recent 10-day forecast. There could be a long period of bad weather after that. Such a drastic change could influence the Sakura forecasts significantly.

I'm a little disappointed with all the websites that do the forecast.
I understand that it depends on weather and other conditions, but dates are changing every single day and it's very difficult to plan a trip.

Nature does not care about the plans of humans and refuses to be tightly scheduled. The forecasters do the best they can and update it daily as new observations are made, but it's still a complex organic system with uncountable variables.

Ironically, this is part of the symbolism of the sakura in Japanese culture. It is beautiful, but unpredictable and is gone too quickly - which is a symbol our own lives.