Transport Questions during "Rush Hour"

I know things like this have been asked over and over, but I'm looking for specifics.

I've been to Japan 7 times, and am going on my 8th trip in September, however the last time I was there was 5 years ago, and things change quite dramatically in short spans of time in Tokyo!

All the previous times were over the xmas/new years holiday period, too, so my concept of REAL congestion on trains and such during rush hour is a bit skewed (only traffic I've been in there was making a mistake and travelling from Tokyo to Kyoto one year on the day all the Japanese travel to meet their families... standing room only all the way there on the train! Ugh!)

We arrive at 3pm to NRT, and are staying at the Hilton Tokyo. My first thought was that by the time we get our luggage and get onto a train from the airport, we would be coinciding with rush hour at one of the busiest train stations anywhere.... Shinjuku... so it probably makes sense to take the Limo Bus, which will drop us off at the door.

But, I realize that the roads will probably be packed at that time of day too, and I know it won't be a short trip, even if it IS door to door, and that the N'ex is direct from NRT to Shinjuku, which avoids congestion in having to transfer, BUT will still be difficult once we get to Shinjuku.

My understanding is that the N'Ex comes in at pretty much the opposite end of Shinjuku Station to the West Exit, and therefore by the time we walk with our luggage from the station to the Hilton Shuttle at the West Exit, wait for that and take it, we are probably still better off taking the Limo Bus.

We bought some great Samsonite bags that are custom made to stack your carry-on onto your check-in bag, and are only bringing the 2 wheeling bags each, so we should be fairly mobile, despite luggage.. but still..

I know for "first-timers" people always say, "Yes, take the limo bus." I'm far from a first-timer and know my way around pretty well... BUT, it has been 5 years, so I'm sure things have changed and I might be a little rusty!

Just looking for peoples' thoughts on this: Limo Bus, or N'ex? Cast your vote, with reasons!

Evening commutes are not as bad as morning rush. In the morning, everybody goes to work at the same time, perhaps to attend the morning briefing. Quitting time varies a lot, so evening commuters are more spread out. If train is the most convenient mode of transportation, I would not discount travel by train even with rolling luggage. Just make sure your luggage are not blocking the entrance/exit. Coming from Narita, I don't think there are too many commuters taking N'EX (not like Yamanote line or Chuo line anyway), even at Shinjuku. So I would not hesitate taking the N'EX. Personally, I like taking the express bus from Narita.

Cut the long story short: Limo Bus!

For the past 7 days in Tokyo usually between 10-15:30, Ifve encountered numerous o/s travellers with large & numerous bags each, as well as bagpacks swinging on to peoplefs faces, on jam packed trains. They take up space, they block the way and it was a headache for everyone. Two days ago, it was particularly terrible watching the travellers on the Yamanote line....... Any reason for not heeding advise?
Many on travel forums will tell you to take the Nex. By the time you add on the walking time plus crowd time, it will be almost similar to the limo, in my opinion. I prefer door to door and comfort over stress......
For the record, the west exit is unbelievably busy as this is one of the locations the limo drop off / pick up and ticket sellers is located. Despite an additional location for the limo on the south side, the west is still busy.
I personally dislike the west side but endure it when going to Keio dept store. Ifve noticed too that each year with the increase in tourism to Japan, things have changed dramatically especially in Tokyo. Yes, itfs busier and more crowded.

You essentially have one option that brings you door-to-door and an other option where you need to change trains, navigate a big and busy (at nearly all times of the day, even if evening commute isn't the worst time of the day) station with your luggage. Unless the direct bus has not a good departure time, it would seem to be a no brainer, regardless of amount of people on the rush hour trains.

I would take the direct bus to your hotel. It allows no-hassle transport and you can decompress from the flight and let someone else do all the work for you (the driver). I will be doing this next week when I go from Narita to Haneda, allowing me to connect my wifi and log onto my laptop while on the bus while my luggage is safely stowed underneath in the baggage compartment. Otherwise, I'd use the Keisei Skyliner, but that's a totally different subject....

Thanks everyone!

My tendency was towards the Limo Bus. It seems like the easiest option. Just wanted to get some last feedback prior to making that decision, and hey, we can always change our minds if there is any issues with timing on the Limo Bus.

I understand that there's a bus that goes past the Hilton, but also a different one that goes to the century hotel which is one block away, and has different timing, so if the timing is really bad for Hilton, we can always take that and walk one block. Still easier than navigating Shinjuku Station with luggage!