Cherry blossom 2022

Hey everyone!

My friend and I are both students from the Netherlands, and we plan on visiting Japan from the 16th till the 31st of March.

We would love to see the cherry blossom, but after doing some research, I am not quite sure which calendar I should believe...
We also would love to see the blossom in Shinjuku park, but they have not responded to my email yet.

Would you guys know if late March is good for seeing the cherry blossom? Or should we try and postpone it to early April as well? And would it be pretty in the park? If its open for tourists at least..

Hopefully you guys can help me out with some answers and advice! Thanks very much :)

The basics:
https://www.japan-guide.com/e/e2011_when.html

Somewhat meaningful specific dates for the 2022 season won't be out until February 2022 at the earliest.

In short, while only god knows when the trees blossom 9 months ahead, your schedule sounds pretty good, and if it doesn't work out, you can always make day trips to travel north or south instead. I don't know why you insist on Shinjuku park (Shinjuku Gyoen?) anyway.

While it's not sakura, coming in March should let you catch the tail end of ume (plum) at Kairakuen.
https://www.japan-guide.com/e/e6201.html

It's really quite pretty and I personally love the scent of ume. We went to the start of the festival in February 2020 the only week end it was open that year.

Shinjuku Gyoen also has momo (peach), which normally blooms in March and again, is quite pretty.

Sakura is a bit less predictable in many locations, if you 100% want to see sakura and that is the absolutely most important requirement of your trip, it's much easier to time for sakura in Kakunodate or Hirosaki. If you want to go back and read sakura reports for locations, places like Tokyo or Kyoto vary by a good week plus for peak but Kakunodate and Hirosaki are much more consistent.

Your best bet of catching cherry blossoms in Japan would probably be at Mount Yoshino, or Yoshinoyama, but that will come in April.

Yoshino is located south of Kyoto, and southeast of Osaka.

Mount Yoshino has 30,000 cherry trees planted along itfs slopes. They are intentionally planted at different elevations. The trees at the cooler higher elevations will bloom later. This extends the blooming season.

The trees are divided by elevation into four groups, and I believe the delay between the onset of blooming between each group is about 5 days. The blooming season starts at the end of March, and usually peaks around mid April.

Rkold is correct about plum blossoms, they are much more fragrant. In Texas, my plum trees bloom about two weeks before my cherry trees. A good garden, known for plum trees, is Kairakuen Garden in Mito, just north of Tokyo.

Should you go at the later time, there are other flower displays to see. The Blue Nemophila at Hitachi Seaside Park (also near Mito), and the Moss Phlox (Shibazakura) at either Chichibu or the Mount Fuji five lakes area. Both of these area mid-to-late April events. Due to elevation, and I believe the selection of later blooming varieties, many of Chichibufs Cherry trees bloom mid to late April. Chichibu is also known for having cherry trees planted along the Seibu private rail line. Passing trains can cause the echerry petal snowf effect at the end of the blooming season.

Good luck, in planning your vacation.

I found that Shinjuku Gyoen is a perfectly fine place to catch the main bulk of the cherry blossom season, as well as late bloomers. Whether it's the nicest place to go "hanami" (flower viewing, cherry blossoms in particular), is quite subjective. The park is quite big, but also attracts a LOT of visitors, many of them foreign.

Personally, out of the big cities, I found Kyoto to be a far nicer city as far as cherry blossoms go - lots of good parks and streets and whatnot for excellent hanami.

But to answer your question about the dates: the last two weeks of March might be alright, but then it might also not be. It's impossible to tell for sure until only a few weeks before blossoming starts. If you really want to see full bloom, end of March is probably fine.

It's probably a good idea to keep your options open as for location (at least until shortly before departing). That way you can ascertain if you need to go for hanami in, say, Tokyo, Kyoto, or even Kagoshima. This is because blooming season tends to sweep the country from south to north, giving you some flexibility as long as you're not stuck to a certain place to stay.

The "official" blossom season at Shinjuku park (as set out in the information at the park) extends for six weeks from mid-March to late April, so you will get some good blossom there for your dates irrespective of if the season is early or late.
This topic comes up all the time and it is incredibly easy to get good blossom sites across Japan through March and April (and other times of the year). With more than 600 types of cherry tree, and other trees that provide blossom, you are not just looking for one particular type or location, so do not get too hung up about "forecasts".