Cherry Blossom in Tokyo, 25th March

Hi everyone!
We will be landing in Tokyo on 25th March - since blossom started way earlier (https://www.japan-guide.com/sakura/), we are a bit worried we will miss the whole show.
We kinda planned the trip ahead with joining hanami with friends.
What is your experience with cherry blossom in Tokyo? We will we miss the show?
Thanks!
Matt

The March 25/26 is likely going to be the peak of this cherry blossom season. Hopefully the weather will be good. You will certainly not be too late.

Thanks :)

We are arriving on the 31st March, will we be in time for the cherry blossom still.

@matt : nope, you are going to be disappointed. I am expecting the sakura will be past their peak and wont be in their prime. your trip will be a letdown

@rusell: I'd advise you to go north if you wanna see some sakura

Re Matt. If the Sakura are early, then head up to dem mountains...

It's possible for a hours train ride can change the available cherry blossoms but a couple of weeks. That's why people like Yoshino near Kyoto. People currently living in Tokyo can make suggestions on places.

The weather is unbelievably warm everywhere. Even the sakuras are in bloom in Matsue, Shimane (12 March 2023) - a region that�fs supposed to be still relatively cold.

As mentioned above, unless it rains or there�fs strong winds the sakura will still be beautiful.

Unfortunately weather forecast in Tokyo is rain from next week Wednesday to Sunday. After weeks of no rain , right when sakura is blooming I t will rain. 😱

You may see some petal blizzards. If you happen to be late, I recommend to consider Showa Kinen Koen which is often a few days behind central Tokyo or Shinjuku Gyoen, where you can see many late-flowering cherry tree varieties.

I'm in the same situation (arriving afternoon on 3/26). The early blooming and the rain is making me very sad I will miss the blossoms in Tokyo.

I just rearranged my whole trip and now Im heading to Kyoto on 3/30 instead of 4/2 in hopes of seeing them there.

id like to add that im also arriving in kansai airpot on the 29th, originally planned to stay at tokyo for a couple of days for the cherry blossoms but since the date is being moved back EVERY single time a new forecast arrives, ive cancelled my whole tokyo trip and hope to just see it in the kansai region. now im not even sure if the cherry blossoms will still be around on the 29th seeing the forecast is doing a terrible job at predicting the season. My question is, and im sorry if this might seem to be a rant, why do they even bother predicting the all the way from january if the weather is so unpredictable? i am betting a lot of people (myself included) are booking their trip based on that but now at risk of missing them entirely which might be a huge bummer.

Its certainly frustrating when things dont go accoeding to plan, it has affected my trip too. Would we rather have them just publish a forecast in march then? Everyone would be doing things last minute then. Theres plenty of disclaimers out there about the forecasts. We can rely on historical averages and recent trends to make our best guess. But with climate change, I would say most people predict things to get earlier and earlier in future years. The same happens with fall foliage forecasts every year, not just in Japan.

Yeah the answer to the question is basically "because it is better than nothing". They can predict things with a degree of certainty, whether it is 90%, 50%, or 20%, or they can just act on the assumption that they are going to be wrong and not bother to predict anything at all. I think obviously one of these is more useful than the others. I suppose anyone who doesn't agree with that line of thinking could always just pretend the forecasts don't exist and make their own plans.

Probably the general problem with forecasts is s that the margin of error isn�ft stated or not understood by most readers. A forecast comes with a probability which in the case of flowers means many days plus/ minus. Similar to the weather forecast.
Anyway you�fll be able to see some sakura. Just might need to go a bit higher up \ more to the North. I would however do also other things than just chasing sakura while inJapan. There are a few other attractions as well 😎

Humans can simply not accurately predict the temperatures over more than a week or so yet. Therefore, cherry blossom reports will be inaccurate, especially early ones. But this year is particularly horrible. tenki.jp predicted on March 16 that the blossoms in Kyoto would open on the 21st, and then they opened on the 17th. Makes me wonder... In addition, I feel that some of the "representative" trees are becoming increasingly unrepresentative.

I generally try and maximize my chances of seeing full bloom, but unless you're going for a long time, you just can't ever guarantee it. That's just the way it is, that's nature. Sounds like I might miss out this year (arriving on the 25th), and it's not the first time, but I'm still excited to be back.

Seeing all the positive responses after my post, i'm feeling a sense of relief, much appreciated. and not to be rude to Matt since he's the original poster, but can anyone recommend other great cherry blossom spots around the 29th march upwards outside of the Kansai area? i still have hopes that ill be able to catch it in kyoto/osaka in its full glory by the time we arrive though.

i'm bummed about mine as well.

i was supposed to do a tohoku sakura trip, from 23rd - 28th April, only to find out perhaps it's not the best timing to see sakura in morioka, kakunodate, and hirosaki.

The best timing for me would be in hakodate, but even then i'd only spend 2d1n there.

I'm bummed, since i can't change my flights.

as matter of fact, i am starting to wonder if i should modify my itinerary to only involve hokkaido for this sakura trip, for the period of 23 - 28th march

Hey everyone,
First of all, thank you all for your answers and helpful tips. It's really heart warming to see such engaged and warm community here.
Looking at weather forecasts we will see how things turn out and since we will be also visiting Nagoya, Kyoto and Osaka end of March - beginning of April, perhaps we will catch-up with sakura blossom there.
To those who planned your trip based on cherry blossoms (like me) - don't be too bummed about it, we cannot control nature and we all did our best to make time more enjoyable in Japan. There are plenty other exciting things to see and I will definitely be back next year.
Cheers,
Matt