Resumption of tourism - Latest info?

Now that omicron has happened, and it turns out to be not as big a problem as many people feared, hoping restrictions will change for the better soon. While it is anyone's guess what will actually happen, there are some educated guesses out.

Inside Kyoto is predicting March or April: https://www.insidekyoto.com/can-i-travel-to-japan-now updated every monday

Travel Caffeine is suggesting Spring 2022: https://www.travelcaffeine.com/when-will-japan-reopen-allow-foreign-to... updated approx twice a month

Most public opinion on major travel sites seem to be of a similar vein, but most also predicted last year that we would be able to travel this year, which clearly was wrong.

Changing tact slightly, we have plenty of educated guesses on when travel will resume, but has anyone come across any educated guesses as to when we can travel "as before" - no tests, no hotel quarantine, no hotspots?
My guess would be end of 2022 or early 2023, but that is a wild guess and I am obviously no expert.

My current, optimistic guess: we may see some tour groups by summer and maybe some individual travelers in the second half of 2022.

Omicron is just beginning to spread in Japan – and so much is unknown about it that I would not really expect any travel restrictions to be lifted any time soon. Over the New Year�fs days, locals are traveling across Japan (think of this as Christmas holidays in the West, where people come together with their families/relatives), so even about next spring, we�fd need to see how things are after these days.

Of course, travel industry and tourism bureau would issue optimistic predictions, but that might just be their wishful thinking.
As far as I know, regular business travelers to Japan I know are assuming they will need to cancel their March – April business trips to Japan, considering the current conditions in their home countries and quarantine requirements.

The reason the Japanese government has changed its definition of �gclose contact�h on incoming international flights and the associated hotel-quarantine rule recently from: �gif one passenger in a flight is found to be positive for omicron, all passengers on the same flight are considered to have had close contact and must be hotel-quarantined for 14 days�h to �gif one passenger in a flight is found to be positive for omicron, passengers seated in 5 rows near that passenger (2 rows in front and 2 behind) on the same flight are considered to have had close contact and must be hotel-quarantined for 14 days�h (effective starting with flights arriving on Dec. 28) was because they saw no difference between the number of omicron variant infection cases found AFTER the initial PCR test at the airport and that of non-omicron, AND also because the municipal governmental bodies had complaints about their hotel capacity. But this definitely does not mean that they are encouraging unnecessary travel.


My personal guess is that �gas before�h will not really come. But I am no expert. (Writing this as of Dec. 29, 2021)

May or June.
Omnicron cases will have well and truly peaked. And once most of the nation has had it. Then their won't be a huge need for isolating the country.

@AK

You as Japanese mean individual travellers from the West will never come back?

That would be a spit in the face for partners of Japanese�c

@/,

No, that is not what I meant.

Traveling will continue to come with one or more of: vaccinations, test, quarantine (of different duration), etc., meaning, it will not be free of ALL restrictions, particularly for tourism, is what I meant.

Also, the world will not really be exactly the same for us "as before," is what i wanted to say.

Some people say as if restrictions is nationalism or something anti foreigners. However I think people are just afraid of possibility of infection, Japanese people blame also Japanese people who do unnecessary travel (especially rural people who believe that vaccinate person never get infected and athletes). Moreover, Japan is not only country that has restrictions, my country has even more strict one. It is because we want tourists enjoy the country safely, it is a kind of hospitality. I guess Japan has the similar idea and the restrictions will be lifted when they are ready to hospitalize.

Moreover, Japan is not only country that has restrictions,
That is so very true, and even some of those countries with restrictions as severe as Japan have very slow/long timeframes for re-opening in the order of six months or more.
Unfortunately for tourism, the current restrictions are popular in Japan so there is little incentive (apart from the tourism sector) to rush reopening. Until then, a prospective date is simply speculation.

Anything about reopening of borders for tourists is pure speculation in a situation where even future residents aren�ft allowed in. Future residents will be able to comply with lengthy quarantine and will bring more long term benefit to Japan than a few tourists. And even for them the borders are closed and the majority of Japanese voters don�ft seem to have any problem with it. Actually current residents can be happy to be allowed back in. That wasn�ft the case for several months at the beginning of the pandemic either.

>>travel "as before" - no tests, no hotel quarantine, no hotspots?

I am scared that - in all the world, not only Japan - this won't be the case. As 9/11 changed rules about checks before boarding, this will change the flights for a long time, in my opinion. Travelling with a mask and having proofs of vaccination to this or future corona virus will be normal.

My opinion of Japan is that, having the huge population they have, they don't really need foreign tourism as we think. They can easily go on with internal one, and their average age is quite high, so why putting everyone in danger in their country, when they can limit this with some restriction? They're an island, so closing access is the easiest they can do.

Foreign tourism only accounts for a small portion of the Japanese economy now. But the economy has been stagnant for a really long time, we are now in the forth decade of the "Lose Decade" (singular), and the economy basically lacks dynamism. Massive growth of the tourism sector has been a major part of the plan to revitalise the economy for quite a long time now. It would not be as easy as you think to rely only on domestic tourism. Unless a major rethink of how they want to run the country in the 21st century is on the cards then there is no point even entertaining the possibility that they aren't going to open back up sooner or later. They absolutely will, even if that means masks on planes and tests or proof of vaccination on arrival.

Really hope it's relaxed soon, I've got a 3 week non-refundable trip to Tokyo booked for 11th March. (That I had booked over 6 months ago). Was hopeful before the Omicron variant screwed it all up.

Check with the airline. I have a non-refundable fare from ANA for September. After looking into it more I found that they will offer a refund or change if travel is not possible due to borders being closed.

In response to the immigration restrictions being imposed by various countries, we are allowing passengers to change and request refunds for ANA international flight tickets free of charge, regardless of fare rules.
For flights tickets purchased through travel agencies or other non-ANA channels, please contact the location through which you made your purchase.

https://www.ana.co.jp/en/jp/topics/coronavirus-travel-information/immi...

I double checked had ANA confirm it via email. This wasn't advertised at the point of purchase. It's just kind of tucked away on the website. Maybe other airlines have something similar. It is definitely worth checking sooner rather than later because I think at this point it is safe to say that March probably isn't happening.

Yes, best to check with the airline, march will absolutely not happen. They will first allow the special circumstances short term visitor in again, then the visa holders for students and work but even the first category is not getting any visa or landing permit for the time being (which won�et end in January, maybe sometime after February). Given the current situation with quarantine facilities I don�et see any change for tourists before June realistic in any way (and June would even be optimistic).
If the first tourists need to apply for a visa due to the cancellation of the visa waiver program you can count at least 5-8 weeks until you would get one.

Inside Kyoto's January 2022 situation summary update describes a 65% chance of reopening in March, 80% by April. Very optimistic 80% by May.
While the site seems generally reputable and they have been in the business of organising custom tours for some time, it seems very optimistic in that they have not quoted any official sources, only what they feel/hope will happen. In all fairness they have acknowledged these numbers are the writers' personal opinion.

I was originally planning a trip for late Feb or early March while there is still snow in Hokkaido. I understand I will have missed the snow festival (5-12 Feb), I can't make it in time even if they decided to open in Feb (in my opinion, extremely unlikely).

I doubt it will be "as before" tourism though - without testing, QR codes, hotspots, masks, social distancing or vaccination certificates (I am double vaxxed, soon may be called for third dose, but having to carry that certificate around shows that covid is not in the rear view mirror yet)

In fact for "as before" travel I have doubts it will happen in 2022.

So while February trip (planned from 2 years ago) is not likely to happen now, I was wondering if I should keep my itinerary drafts for winter, in case they do really open to tourists in March. I am in charge of planning the trip and can't hurt to be prepared.
How delusional am I for hoping for Early-Mid March or can we ditch the winter gear?

Typo:

Inside Kyoto's January 2022 situation summary update describes a 65% chance of reopening in March, 80% in April. Very optimistic 90% in May.

those possibilities are almost none.
there is the election of ŽQ‹c‰@ in July. they don't take any risk to increase the infections.
clearly, the present spreading has been caused by the in-coming foreigners (and Japanese) and US military soldiers.
there is no reason to accept new in-comers.

i would bet all my fortune, that you can ditch this winter gear. (i even wonder if you should consider it even for NEXT year :-) )

This is opinion and I'll stand to be corrected if something I say is completely wrong, I do my research but there is quite a bit of misleading information out there.

My understanding before Omicron was that the resumption of domestic tourism (new Go To campaign) was on the cards for January-February, and that the results of that would be taken into consideration when making a decision on opening the borders up to foreign travellers again. Now, again, this was before Omicron, and one can expect that if Omicron has had any effect at all on the timeline then it would be a negative one.

Following this train of thought, I just don't see how things get moving before late spring.

Bear in mind also, there are several groups of people who are undoubtedly higher priority than independent tourists who are still not allowed back in. Most notably I think, (most) residents-in-waiting are still stuck in their home countries, even having gained employment, being accepted into academic institutions, etc. After we see some movement there, it will likely still be months, not weeks, before independent tourists are accepted. It is only when group tours are allowed back in that we can start to be really hopeful and say, okay, maybe they will open back up in the not too distant future.

I think you are right to take these percentage chances of reopening with a grain of salt. Without it coming from a serious source inside the government you can't take it too seriously.

Like I said above, I am booked for September. If you asked me how likely I think it is that I will be able to go, honestly? 50%. Again, it's just worthless speculation. But also realistically how can anyone say that any date before summer has a chance that is 80-90%? Without movement on the fronts mentioned above, I think that is just insane. Japanese industry and government wants to reopen, of course, but they have been closed for nearly two years now and while there have been some negative effects things are not so bad that the government is going full steam ahead with a total resumption of travel. So basically I'm really suspicious of anyone who says that there is a 90% chance of them opening back up within the next four months.

corona positive rate of in-comers:
117 positives out of 2089 on Jan. 4, 2022.