big earthquake in tokyo next 4 years

News out today saying that the government prediction that there is a 70% change of a big (magnitude 7) earthquake hitting tokyo metropolitan area in the next 30 years is wrong...Tokyo University now predict 70% chance of an M7 earthquake in Tokyo in the next FOUR years.
I found this news reported by BBC, The Guardian, USA Today, Daily Yomiuri (english version).
Reading this news has me worried and has made me consider leaving Japan, What do others think? Is this news reported in Japanese too?

Is this news reported in Japanese too?
Yes, of corse!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jA8yT6TiFrA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qczhvsrq3G4
But, it's well-known fact for residents of Tokyo since long ago.
There was Great Kanto earthquake registered magnitude of 7.9 on 1923.
http://www.japan-guide.com/forum/quereanew.html?id_que=88569
And we knew that earthquake have frequency.
So we have earthquake-resistant buildings.
Did you hear buildings be destroyed on 3.11 last year?
Did Tokyo Sky-Tree under construction be damaged?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezKJU4Vn-YI

I wouldn't doubt such reports.

I've translated dozens of real estate reports which include detailed earthquake surveys so I guess I am not as shocked by the reports that "a big one is coming".

But the truth is, big ones have been coming and going with increasing frequency for a while now. Yet, we're still here. Besides Tokyo can survive a M7 earthquake. A M9 and above is scary though, to be honest.

But, we can't escape natural disasters. I could move to a Chicago suburb and die in a flood or winter storm or the summer heat and there's the same fear of death by tsunami and/or hurricane/typhoon all along the southeastern and eastern USA.

The earth goes through cycles and it seems we are in a adjustment period now. But in the greater scheme of things, leaving Japan because of a potential earthquake seems silly.

What, you fly back to your home country and the next day get hit by a car or caught in act of random violence?

Sorry... I mistook the URL of link.
There was Great Kanto earthquake registered magnitude of 7.9 on 1923.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MSLTAPlFWY
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1923_Great_Kant%C5%8D_earthquake
And now students in Tokyo have regularly disaster drill on September 1 every year.

Yea, that was widely reported in the Japanese news last night. Personally, I don't find this very concerning. Earthquake prediction science is at best extremely imprecise, and they have been predicting the big one for ages now. I think its all the same if we just assume one is imminent and prepare ourselves the best we can. Moving seems extreme. Japan is, after all, extremely earthquake resistant. The 3/11 earthquake is a testament to that.

Anyway, here's the article for those who haven't read it yet:
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/features/science/T120123004717.htm

It sounds like this new prediction is a rehashing of Tokyo University's earlier study (with adjustments made for increases in seismic activity since the 3/11 earthquake) that was criticized for being based on a historical surveys rather than mechanical models. As such, they end up sounding like sports betting odds more than anything.

You may be interested in this PBS piece on the subject:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/weather/july-dec11/earthquakes_10-20.ht...

I know there are risks anywhere but those probabilities of 70% in the next 4 years seems so high!. I dont know I can feel the same about flooding etc. in other cities because there is not the same probability of that level of potential danger.
I know about the great Kanto earthquake and that a big earthquake has been known about and predicted for years but this news this week puts that probability significantly higher than any previous estimates I heard of.
Even if me and all the people I care about survived it I just cant imagine how Tokyo would cope with the aftermath of such an event because there are so many people living here.

I know there are risks anywhere but those probabilities of 70% in the next 4 years seems so high!

I know about the great Kanto earthquake and that a big earthquake has been known about and predicted for years but this news this week puts that probability significantly higher than any previous estimates I heard of.

Its probably not much reassurance, but I understand similar historical surveys say the big one is long passed due. 70% seems relatively low in comparison.

I dont know I can feel the same about flooding etc. in other cities because there is not the same probability of that level of potential danger.

There is and there isn't. It doesn't really matter though, because both are highly unlikely events. This reminds me of a Freakonomics article where they talked about how the human brain is pretty bad at assessing these kinds of risk in a way that overstates the dramatic and unlikely at the expense of more common (possibly more dangerous) events.

Even if me and all the people I care about survived it I just cant imagine how Tokyo would cope with the aftermath of such an event because there are so many people living here.

We'll pick up the pieces and rebuild, just like we've always done since the beginning of time. Just look at Kobe, San Francisco, and even Tokyo. They've all suffered massive earthquakes, some above and beyond magnitude 7.0, and they are still standing and striving today.

As suggested, preparedness is most important in any disaster prone region.

The reality is, the chances of you dying from the actual earthquake are astronomical. Casualties from earthquakes are primarily secondary trauma (fire, malnurishment, etc.) and most are preventable depending on 1: preparedness and 2: disaster response.

So if you are educated on preparedness (ex: do you have a Go Bag in your home for each member of your family?) and response (what you do in the first 10-30 seconds after a major disaster can determine your fate), you have no need to worry any more than you do about getting hit by a bus when you leave the house.

I take it for granted that you worry and consider leaving Japan.
And if you leave, Japanese never laugh at you.
Justifiably you have freedom of choice and behavior.

But Japanese have many huge earthquake here before it called Tokyo.
There are innumerable earthquakes in Japan that is made up of volcanic islands.
So it's unnecessary that you warn Japanese.
To tell the truth, I don't want to hear 'Is this news reported in Japanese too?'.

Excuse my poor English that may be erroneous or misleading.
I never want to say rude things to you.

It's really your decision to leave or not. I own some realestate in Tokyo, Saitama and Yokohama so I am reviewing my earthquake insurance terms. But I guess that's about all I can do.

I am Japanese and if it gets devastated, I'm just going to pickup and rebuild. That's what our fathers did after all of our cities were burned down to the ground and they worked hard and rebuilt our nation as a better and stronger one than the old one. I grew up on these air raid and post-war poverty stories. No reason why we can't .

I rent a weekend house by Lake Yamanaka where I can evacuate, but the eruption of Mt. Fuji is way overdue, and some say that the eruption is linked to earthquakes so I may evacuate to Fuji and a few days later, may die from the eruption.

So what can you do?

If you are a foreigner, you won't have to jeopardize your safety. Again it's your judgement and if you think you want to leave, no one will blame you.

I will just stick to this piece of land and as long as I am alive, try to rebuild for the future generations. That's the way we lived for two thousand years.

@ajapaneseboy

You say you take it for granted that I worry and want to leave Japan...well you probably shouldn't take it for granted as there are plenty of others who don't think like me as demonstrated here.
I am not trying to warn Japanese people...That report comes from Tokyo University, I expect it to be known about in Japan I was just expecting there might be a more in depth analysis of what Tokyo University said or perhaps more explanation from a domestic source.
You are not being rude but the majority of people living in Tokyo Japanese or foreign have no experience of a Magnitude 7 earthquake hitting the city they live in. Just being Japanese doesn't give you more experience or ability to cope with earthquakes...I don't see our situations as that different. The tsunamis and fires etc don't care what kind of passport you have.

Thanks for the advice from everyone I agree with people saying just stay prepared..with the bags etc. I havent decided to leave it just made me consider the option more seriously. I guess this news just made the possibility an event like that feel even more real.

the majority of people living in Tokyo Japanese or foreign have no experience of a Magnitude 7 earthquake hitting the city they live in.
Sure. And now I remember the presupposed safety of a nuclear power plant.
Sorry, it was my self-conceit that I said "it's unnecessary that you warn".
I think I've heard enough of that boy who cried wolf
(because I heard that every year since I was a child),
but I can't say that I made all the preparations without fail.
In tokyo, I had to understand that earthquake on 3.11 as a preparation and this news as advance notice.
We have a little damage on 3.11, but it's like a protective inoculation.
I'll seriously confirm my preparations, not only "leave or stay".
Thank you!

Relax...
Have another beer...

What do I think about it? Well.. I certainly agree that this news is wake-up call and shouldn't be ignored. It seems to me that we should fully expect to go through a big one quite soon.

So, I fully expect the big quake, fully expect to survive it (as pointed out by kyototrans that is exceedingly likely), but then what happens is anybody's guess I reckon. Not just the immediate effects of fires, lack of power, emergency services, food, water, sanitation.. but the long-term economic effects that would be huge and felt globally.

Although a foreigner, having been here for about 5 years or so, I have no plans to leave though. To be honest I'm more worried about not being here as I travel abroad a lot for work. I would want to try and help my girlfriend, or her family and my other friends. I'm also proud to live here and don't want to leave.

gilesdesign,

A story was just posted over at japanprobe explaining how the numbers were calculated, as well as a counterpoint to the earthquake predictors. They're pretty much as I speculated in my earlier post, but you may want to check them out for yourself:

http://www.japanprobe.com/2012/01/25/how-a-70-chance-of-a-m7-earthquak...
http://www.japanprobe.com/2012/01/25/earthquakes-cannot-be-predicted-o...

I have lived in San Francisco since 1969 and a resident of the SF Bay Area all my life. We have had many earthquakes here during my lifetime and have been told there is a large percentage another will strike in the next 25 years. Two major earthquake faults run through the region (San Andreas and Hayward) plus dozens of smaller fault lines. The 1989 M6.9 was the strongest I've ever felt and I was at the beach in western SF when it happened. The 1989 quake resulted in the retro fit of many buildings and structures (including the rebuilding of the eastern span of the Bay Bridge which will be completed in a couple of years). The focus since that quake has been on preparedness and ongoing reinforcement of all buildings large and small. If you are going to live in an earthquake prone area (and the Pacific Basin - the Ring of Fire is earthquake prone) then you must be prepared. Earthquakes are survivable, it is fires or tsunami that follow that can kill. Educate yourself and prepare yourself as you would in a flood plain or hurricane prone area. BTW, I have experienced a few moderate sized quakes while in Tokyo but they did not last long.

You know the West coast of the U.S. is expecting a big earthquake who knows when, and so is the middle of the U.S. with the New Madrid fault line, other places have tornados, so no matter where you go on the earth you will face a threat of danger. Move to the southern tip of Japan if you fear a earthquake in Tokyo, you could always move to a different prefecture that is far away from Tokyo. And living in a huge city with a big population comes with a price which is if there is a big disaster it will effect a densly populated area greatly and there are lots of concrete structures in big cities.