My first gut reaction is that you would want to stay near a Temple Complex, so that you could join in on some of the first temple visit events of the new year. The large bells struck 108 times starting at midnight, and people come to receive a new year's blessing.
Narita actually has a very good temple complex, and I might stay in Narita that night.
http://www.japan-guide.com/e/e6401.htmlThe other place I would consider going is Ueno, because there is a temple and a shrine in Ueno park, and it is pretty close to Sensoji Temple complex in Asakusa. Ueno is a Shinkansen Station, and you can catch a bullet train to Nagano from there.
http://www.japan-guide.com/e/e3019.htmlhttp://www.japan-guide.com/e/e3004.htmlI would actually think about staying in Tokyo an extra day and going on the pilgrimage to the seven lucky gods. One of the gods, Bensaiten, has her temple in Ueno Park. You can get the paper to get all the stamps from each shrine there. I think its about a 2-3 hour walk, and it goes by the temple of the 46 Ronin. This is a traditional thing to do on the first day of the new year, so why not get a blessing on your trip to Japan?
http://japan.jamesbaquet.com/2009/07/seven-lucky-gods-pilgrimage.htmlI also believe that the first night should be spent near the airport, in case there is a problem with your luggage. Even if you decide to travel to Ueno for the first night, I would not use a JR Pass for the first day.
I would take the Kensei Skyliner from Narita Terminal to Keisei-Ueno Station, which is actually under Ueno Park, and next to Ueno Station. If you plan to do the pilgrimage walk, make sure you get an IC card, because the final temple will be a few stations away from Ueno on the Yamanote Loop.
If I was to stay in Narita, I would use the IC card to get from Narita airport terminal to Narita Station.
Either way, the IC card will be handy on your trip.