How to Plan for Hanami experience?

Hi everyone.

I am considering to going to Japan in Spring 2018, and I know that I can see the last year's forecast to get an estimated time on when the cherry blossom might bloom in 2018, but I was curious as to how to best plan for my trip to experience Hanami in 2018?

I am thinking going to Miyajima/Hiroshima area for a day or two, spend several days in Kyoto area and other days in Tokyo areas.

I am trying to book flight ticket, but I do not know when is the best time to go for the best hanami type experience. I am trying to balance the higher cost as I wait for more accurate forecast and planning early so I have ample time to prepare and hopefully lower cost.

Also, I live in the United States and I do experience bad seasonal allergies. Will experiencing hanami do the same thing? I am planning on bringing medication with me of course to help mitigate the issue.

I really appreciate your help!

Well, the later you book the more accurate the forecast will be. There are also mixed opinions if ticket prices generally are much lower many months before or not.

However if you want to book now, and assuming that you will be in Japan something like 7-10 days, seeing full blown Hanami in so diverse lives cations as Hiroshima, Kyoto and Tokyo in the same week is not likely. BUT this gives you the chance to likely catch it at least in one place. I personally would time the travel (if you need to decide early) in a manner to align with last years Kyoto peak. This way if next year Hanami is earlier, you should still be able to catch it in Tokyo or higher altitudes around Kyoto. If next year it is later, you should be able to get a glimpse in Hiroshima.

Regarding allergies. Many Japanese suffer of allergies. However allergies are a reaction of your body, so it will depend if you are allergic to any of the pollen in Japan. Apart from obviously Sakura, in Japan a kind of pine tree is a strong allergy causer. I think it�fs a bit later than Sakura, at least if I remember correctly from how my colleague looked like this year.
Bring your meds and you can also get face masks in Japan to protect you a little bit more.

Enjoy your trip to Japan!

The "Hanami experience", in case you are not aware, is sitting in the cold in a crowded public park and eating combini food. Don't forget to arrive at 5am to secure a decent spot!

in a crowded public park
If that is your view, you're doing it wrong.
My hanami is being warm, in an uncrowded spot (there are so many), enjoying good food/drink/company. I have several new places to head to in March/April across the country and well as some trusty/old spots.
And, yes, April can be freezing, but that is part of it.

it is a gambling. But, even if you miss the peak - there are different sort of cherrytrees, and they blossom on different times. So most probably you will see something. And you can also do daytrips to areas where sakura is just going on.

I have experienced sakura in different places, crowded urban one and beautiful countryside but somehow the most memorable is the one in Ueno park, sitting on blue plastic, with bento and bottle of vine. Together with so many people. Don't dream about French picnic on green grass - in Ueno it is on asphalt.

And since no one else mentioned it, even more than airfare, unless you are staying with a friend you should book accommodations now because they will book up and many websites let you cancel bookings a week or less out, so it's less risky than airfare. Kyoto is a very popular destination for sakura.

And to be fair while peak is gorgeous, even before peak can be quite pretty. If you have a rail pass, you can take advantage of that to chase sakura so to speak to find someplace it is peak. If it's not yet peak in Kyoto, head to Fukuoka. If it's past peak in Tokyo head somewhere further north. Places like Kakunodate and Hirosaki hit peak several peaks after Tokyo.

Good luck!

So, It is worth waiting until January/February to get estimated forecast before I book flight and hotels/lodging? I can always use miles to "mitigate" flying cost, but is lodging reasonable to get and have options 2 months before that late march/april?

If I were to choose 1 city to guarantee see hanami somewhere, I should choose Kyoto over Miyajima and Tokyo?

Which city you must want to see sakura in depends on you, they all have pluses and minuses.

I would book hotels in Kyoto now if you are planning to be there for sakura. If you wait until February a lot of places will be filled and you will be staying in Osaka or Kobe and commuting to Kyoto any day you want to visit. Some people like that, I personally don't.

I'm planning to go to Kyoto in June and unlike places I am interested in on Kyushu, nearly every hotel/ryokan/condo/hostel allows booking 6+ months out. There are exceptions but there are fewer of those in Kyoto than anywhere else it seems. Even some chains have booking 6+ months out in Kyoto but not anywhere else (or at least not Tokyo and Fukuoka!)

As I said, most hotel booking sites allow cancellations with no fees (just read the fine print) and book potential dates you want. Heck, I'm currently double booked in Tokyo for June and I plan to cancel the reservations I won't use in the next few days.

If you go to reserve rooms on Booking.com right now for two people from Tuesday April - Friday April 6th 76% of their inventory is already booked.

I don't think it's worth waiting for forecasts at all. Because even if you come on the right date, rain or wind can ruin everything on that specific date.

What locals do is to estimate a couple of weekends. For example, we might say to a friend or family, "Let's go next weekend." But if we notice flowers blooming earlier, we change our plans to "this weekend" instead. Or if the forecast says it's going to rain, we head out before the weekend. Or if the buds are still tight, we postpone it to next next weekend. If we can get a vacation, we head north to see some more. Quite often, blossoms can be scattered by an early wind/rain, but then blossom again.

So the best thing you can do is to book accommodation in Japan for maybe more than 10 days during late March to early April. And once you notice it's the best time, you can make day trips to the best spot(s).

As suggested, you don't necessarily have to picnic in the cold climate. You can take a long stroll, or a long drive along the row of trees, or you can visit one of the many low-key spots where there is no crowd. In fact, in residential areas you can sit/walk under one huge tree at a park or a shrine or a temple or a school for a whole day without really being disturbed by crowds or noise or alcohol. You can even enjoy quite a big temple full of cherry blossom trees within the 23 wards of Tokyo.

Cherry blossoms are very easy to spot from overground train windows, so all you have to do is to ride a train to find a spot you may want to visit. In fact, seeing blossoms from trains is one of the big treats during the season. Some areas such as the river near Nakameguro station is famous for its diverse food vendors.

So in short, as long as you manage to book for 10 days and keep your itinerary flexible, you have hundreds of options. Choose a different option each day!

When you are moving around (compared to being stationary in one place) it is difficult to encounter peak bloom everywhere you go. In 2017, I landed in Tokyo on 4/6 and the peak bloom in Tokyo was declared the next day. So I enjoyed hanami in various places of Tokyo (Shinjuku Gyoen was my favorite). But as I moved west and south-ward from Tokyo, most places were past peak and not as spectacular as the peak bloom.

It is good to know that you can view Sakura pre-peak and enjoy them much better than past-peak. In fact, some people enjoy them like 70% or 80% full, rather than 100% peak bloom.

A lot of people intending to visit during cherry blossom season next year will already have their trips booked. I had mine booked by September the year before. Accommodations fill up very fast and you may already struggle to find lower-cost or convenient lodgings in popular spots like Kyoto.

For an ideal cherry blossom visit you want to keep your itinerary flexible so you can travel to the full bloom sites as needed. I spent six nights in Kyoto and ventured out from there with a JR Pass to sights like Yoshino, Hikone, Hiroshima, Okayama, Himeji, etc. when the weather was good (not every day - had some heavy rain in Himeji!) and the blossoms were in bloom. You could plan a similar flexible stay out of other large cities.

The most accurate forecasts won't be released for months yet, so they're not worth waiting for. If you think you might like to go next year, book now for the average dates with some days either side, and hope for the best!

It is Hard to predict. I did Cherry Blossom viewing earlier this year and it was late blooming. I went from West to East (Hiroshima to Tokyo) around Apr 1-15. Based on average dates, I should have seen everything in bloom except Tokyo. However, it was cooler in general so ended up seeing some at Hiroshima, some at Kyoto and Full Bloom in Tokyo. The good news was we had Japan Rail pass and also flexible. When we where at Nagano, we notice that Tokyo was in Full Bloom. So we decided to cut 1 day and headed straight to Tokyo and it did not disappoint!

So I would still plan it about say Apr 3-17, but make it flexible if you are chasing after the Blossoms.
You will need to book hotels now. Choose ones that have free cancellations to a certain date. You can always keep looking at it if something else comes up. Finally since it is already near end of Dec, you will need to book your flights soon. In Canada, the sale has already started with ANA but every market is different so you will need to decide what is consider good price for you.

Hope this helps!!

Thank you guys for your great advice! The sheer amount of advice is amazing to see!

Based on everyone's responses, I think I am going to plan for full bloom in Kyoto, and if the weather makes the season go earlier or later than expected, I will at least catch something in Miyajima/Hiroshima or in Tokyo area!

Hmm, looking at previous year's data, and looking at my allocated time for Japan (~2 weeks in Japan), looks like I should plan for Late March to Early April... so would something like 28th entering Japan and going to Miyajima to leaving Tokyo at either April 11th or 13th work? That should buy me enough time to hopefully be in the right areas for opportunities for cherry blossom viewing.

Thanks again for your help!

Every year is a bit different. It is very hard to predict when the season begins until about a month prior. There are some sites that give forecasts though, generally starting from about mid-February.
http://sakura.weathermap.jp/
http://www.jnto.go.jp/sakura/eng/index.php
http://www.rurubu.com/season/spring/sakura/

On average, the first week of April is a good time most years. But of course with Mother Nature there is no guarantee.
There are many, many places to see them - you don't have to walk through an ocean of people. There is a list of the 100 best at
https://wikitravel.org/en/Japan%27s_Top_100_Cherry_Blossom_Spots
and you'll notice not many are in densely packed cities at all.
http://bit.ly/2Dk5jTR
Actually, Miyajima is a very good spot for the blossoms - many don't even think of it.
http://bit.ly/2wL4cfN
Kyoto will be jammed with tourists to see them. But few go outside to see some real treasures nearby, like the Yodo Riverside Park Sewaritei, between Kyoto and Takatsuki - 1.4 km of cherry blossoms lined up, yet unknown to most.
http://www.kankou-yawata.org/?page_id=18

Yes, every year is different. For this year (2017) the forecasts were for an early season (around 5 days), but then the weather got cold in Feb/March and delayed things so the actual season was probably three days later than average.
However, the broader point is that is a forecast for one particular type of tree (out of 600 varieties) and there are a lot of cherry trees all around the country and hundreds of sites. It is pretty hard to miss at least some nice blossom during that period.

If you are flexible, there is basically a 100% chance you will see full blooms during the first week of April and certainly with 2 weeks.

Kyoto has a longer season because it has so many locations, but there are good spots all over. Rain may affect things too. It is a rainy time of year, so even if a place is full bloom, you may not want to go if it's raining.

The more set you are on seeing a specific site in bloom, the higher the gamble. Of course you will want to keep track of the places that most interest you, but always have back-ups and consider being open to wider areas. For example, if there are blossoms in Hiroshima and Okayama, but Hiroshima is rainy and Okayama is not, go to Okayama. If you have a Rail Pass it will be easy to do and you can definitely see blossoms. There has never been a year that I am aware of with zero fully blooming trees anywhere the first week of April.