Probably vs Maybe

hi there,

i would please like japanese native speakers who are also very fluent in english to give their thoughts if possible.

i still can't get my head around the japanese versions of MAYBE and PROBABLY.

i use TABUN and nearly all native speakers i ask have difficulty explaining and most of the time say that they are the same. i appreciate there are other terms; osoraku and shimasu etc but i would really like to know which 2 separate words are well understood by native speakers in casual conversation.

thank you kindly.

If you think of the English words, I am assuming that “probably” is more certain than “maybe” (if you think about the likelihood of something happening/someone agreeing), I guess?

So if you think of the scale of likelihood:
Possibly - maybe - probably - definitely
Then i would say:
Moshika shitara - tabun - osoraku - kitto / zettai

At the same time, I feel that the English word “maybe” is quite expressive in the sense that it can take different shades of certainty and can be used with facial expressions (for example) to give different nuances, I wonder if you’d agree.
There can be a very disinterested, flat “Maybe” answer when someone invites you to a party, to an answer of “Maybe so” with a raised eyebrow when you ask someone “don’t you think he’s lying?” (This is “suggesting but without knowing the fact”), or answering “Maybe later” when you are asked at a bar if you want to have another glass of beer, just to wave off the waiter.

My sense is that “tabun” is similar in that way too - if a young person answers emphatically “tabun iku yo!,” to an invitation, I’d find it disappointing if that person later didn’t show up (in my view, younger folks tend to avoid absolute answers/expressions). If a more grown person answers “tabun sou deshou “ cautiously, i really wouldn’t know for sure. If a more grown person says “osoraku sou deshou,” that to me sounds more matter-of-fact and more certain, in the same way that “probably” sounds a bit more certain in a matter-of-fact way.

Once again i might not be really providing a clear solution to your riddle, but this is my two cents :)

wow AK thx for taking the time to reply and by far, you insight and explanation is the best i have heard. it definitely, not maybe lol resonates with me, especially your observation about different levels of "maybe". im thinking that is where some of the confusion may lie. this has really helped me and i will start using the words you suggested :) i often felt uncomfortable when using tabun when speaking as i didnt want to sound too cocky / arrogant / assured when using it a "maybe" as opposed to "probably" - thx again! greatly appreciated

Whether it is Japanese or English, everything depends on context. But just to add to AK's wonderful answer, the words that always comes to mind when I think of uncertainty is the two below:

darou-unten
kamoshirenai-unten

These are made-up words that we often learn at driving school here in Japan. When you're driving (unten) a car, you're not supposed to think, "Ano shingo wa aka ni naranai DAROU. (That blue light will PROBABLY not turn red by the time I cross it.)" Instead, you're supposed to think, "Ano shingo wa aka ni naru KAMOSHIRENAI." (That blue light will MAYBE turn to red by the time I cross it.)"

In this context, "-darou" is assumption while "-kamoshirenai" is awareness.

There are many many ways, both in English and Japanese, to express uncertainty, but these are just a couple of them.

hi uco, thank you very much for your reply :)

Your examples using darou were very interesting, i will look into that further. thx

I agree, context is very important, e.g probably, suggesting that there is a more likely than not chance of occurrence, could mean 51%, while maybe, usually indicating uncertainty, somewhere in the middle, might be 52%. this on contextual face value would suggest that MAYBE is more likely than PROBABLY. But as we know, that is not the logical outcome.

It definitely does get confusing with colloquial and urban language, especially with so many ppl misusing words. My favourite pet hates are the use of "literally" and anything above "100%" when expressing certainty :P

The initial reason I wanted to know the difference between maybe and probably as in conversation, if i use the wrong one, it may be perceived as arrogant. e.g if someone asked if I thought I would win a game of chess.

For me, there is a big difference (in english) between "possibly I may win (maybe)" and "i will probably win"....

maybe/probably haha this is not the best example, but hopefully you see what I mean. thanks again for your input :)

AussieRonnie, there are many aspects to your question that even bilingual Japanese people can't answer.

1) You can be bilingual or fluent (to what extent can be debatable), but not very good at grammar or not at the same level in both languages.

2) There can be many interpretations of what is correct. It is possible to have more than one right answer.

3) "Maybe" and "probably" are not the only words for uncertainty.

This goes back again into a matter of both how a person decides to interpret and translate. There are words like "may", "perhaps", "possibly", etc...

Let's use 3 sentences to demonstrate this point. The below examples can be interpreted or translated in a few different ways, depending on the person:

Ni shuukan atode shuppatsu suru tsumori desu 。
二週間後で出発するつもりです。
We’re probably leaving in two weeks.

Kare wa tabun shippai suru darou。
彼は多分失敗するだろう。
He will probably fail.

Kanojo wa michi ni mayotta kamoshirenai。
彼女は道に迷ったかもしれない。
She may have possibly got lost.

My opinion is that the best a person can do is get a lot of practice. Programs like Japanese Language Decoded (Google it or go to their site, zenpowerstore.com) might help, as it has helped me, because the quiz and scoring format helps with memorization. Another helpful method can be watching movies, and reading the Japanese or English subtitles. I prefer the Japanese subtitles, but at first a person might use the English ones.

Some of the advantages of such methods are with being convenient, repetition, and cheap. At the end of the day, it's a lot of practice that will make the difference.

Thanks for your feed back.

The initial reason I wanted to know the difference between maybe and probably as in conversation, if i use the wrong one, it may be perceived as arrogant. e.g if someone asked if I thought I would win a game of chess.

For me, there is a big difference (in english) between "possibly I may win (maybe)" and "i will probably win"....

Actually, I believe that the majority of people, whether it's an English speaker or a Japanese speaker, don't really pay attention to the degree of uncertainty that words may imply.

For example, among the safest ways to sound not arrogant is to use expressions like, "hopefully (I'll win)" [(katsu to) iin desukedo], or just be bold and say, "I know (I'll win)" [(katsu to) kakushin shiteimasu]. Otherwise, all terms of uncertainty, whether it's kamo, darou, tabun, kitto or anything else is just uncertainty. The degree of that is up to the reader/listener to comprehend. And you can't say things like, "But you said 'probably' instead of 'maybe', so I assumed you'd do it," or "I only said 'maybe' not 'probably', so you shouldn't have expected me to do it." The degree is pretty much subjective for most people, and these people even include people who work to create literature.

So if you're afraid of sounding arrogant, I think you just have to use totally different expressions. "No one knows." [dare nimo wakarimasen] is another handy one.

thx again uco for your additional input. you definitely raise good points. as for "most" people, i can't speak on their behalf but in my circle of family, friends, work colleagues, i find that nuances, sarcasm, and language habits aside, many do use the different words in question in appropriate context. we don't hold each other accountable if their word use suggested something that did not eventuate, instead, it just allows us at the time to gauge the situation better. thanks for that additional expression - i will look into that. :) regards, ronnie

hi rejo, thank you for taking the time to respond - wow i wasnt expecting so much feedback from everyone :) very cool. i agree with your point regarding even native speakers are not necessarily great with grammar can contribute to misuse, or at least, different interpretations of words.

regardless of whether many people use words incorrectly that eventually get accepted by the masses, there are still appropriate use cases. japanese native speakers mostly understand the concept of probability percentage i,e if something has a probability of about 50% to occur as opposed to 95%.

i understand that there are many cultural idiosyncrasies in japan and was wondering if this may have contributed to misunderstanding? i.e people sometimes say "it is difficult" when they really mean "no". I thought this might translate in a similar way with "maybe" and "probably"

thx again for your feedback. regards, ronnie