Cherry Blossoms

Hi,

When you mentioned forecast of cherry blossom before March have not rarely been a little inaccurate in the past. What does it mean?

Thanks

Basically, the earlier the forecast, the less accurate it is. There have been a few years in the past when the forecasts were over a week off even just a few weeks before the blossoms' opening. In other words: forecasts published before March (or even before February) tend to be unreliable.

The cherry blossoms are very sensitive to the weather, even if they have started to bloom, if it gets cold, cloudy or rainy, it can delay the bloom.

if it gets cold, cloudy or rainy, it can delay the bloom.

I am a hobby sakura-ist - and just as a fun remark - after researching the timing of the blossoms for about 20 years now, I have come to the conclusion that rain and clouds have no direct impact on the timing of the blossoms, and that the only factor that matters is the temperature. Of course, indirectly, they have an impact on the temperature. My theory is that a tree will open quickly on a hot day even if it is raining. If a real scientist knows otherwise, please let me know. Sorry for the distraction.

Hi,

Is 1st to 6th April a safe bet to visit Kyoto for full bloom in 2023?

Thanks

No, there is no safe bet when it comes to the timing of nature, especially not half a year in advance. But in the average year, the mentioned time period comes with a relatively high probability of being able to see the blossoms.

Kyoto generally has a longer viewing period because it has such a large amount of places, so it would be very unlikely for Kyoto to have zero blossoms on April 1-6 however, specific sites may not be good during those dates. Just knowing that there are blossoms in "Kyoto" is okay I suppose if you don't want to see blossoms anywhere in particular, but I find it's really only useful to know if the blossoms will be at their peak at the specific places I want to visit. There are many websites during the cherry blossom season that track the blooming progress. They generally track the progress at the most popular places. Instagram is also an excellent tool for tracking real blooming progress. Just make sure you are looking at someone who posts current pictures.

I also always suggest being flexible if you want to enjoy cherry blossoms. It's good to have back-up destinations, even further out ones, that are also at their blooming peaks on a tentative list, so that if it is rainy (or even overcast/cloudy) in Kyoto on April 1-2 but sunny and full bloom in Okayama (for example), going to Okayama and really enjoying the blossoms rather than having a disappointing time in Kyoto trying to "make the most of it".