Will I encounter bears?

Hello,

I just discovered this observatory with an awesome view but it's a 20 minute walk and I wanted to get people's thoughts on if a bear might pop out and surprise me during my walk

I'll be going her Kabutoyama Observatory in NW Kyoto.

Thank you!

Probably not

You can always ding a bell as you go

Only a very small number of accidents with bears happen in Kyoto Prefecture. Around 2 per year. Almost none are fatal. For comparison, one person dies every week in a traffic accident in Kyoto.

your chance of encountering a bear is bearly significant.

Do you mean Kabutoyama close to Fushimi Inari in Kyoto? That�fs in the middle of build up area. I�fd be pretty sure that there hasn�ft been a bear for the last several hundred years.

@likebike no this is at the very top of Kyoto right on the Hyogo border

In all my combined months walking around various paths, forests and rural spots, closest I've gotten are a few warning signs and the occasional bear bell. Seen a few venomous snakes though.
Some bad math:
125 million people and 365 days a year with roughly 40 bear encounters per year. 1 in 1.14 billion.
Of the 125M people, only a proportion of those will actually be in areas where a bear is likely to be, but a lot of people still visit rural areas and where a bear encounter is possible. So cutting it down to 20M people and for only part of the year (when people are most likely to be in areas where there are bears), say a month, then 1 in 15 million. Better luck with lottery tickets.
Also for reference, you don't need to be in the wilderness to encounter bears - I was in Takayama when one visited a local house one evening. And for Fushimi-Inari shrine, wild boars do roam the mountain, despite being in/near a built up area.