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Central Japan big earthquake likely? 2011/3/16 10:43
Approx. where is the ''big central Japan earthquake'' predicted/expected (as the recent one earlier this week was noted as not being the ''big one'' expected (soon?) for central Japan, as was too small and off different plates I believe)?

Is that off the same plate system as the 9 last week and thus more likely to happen now while there is more seismic activity?

And where is it expected/likely?

(Just re-thinking now my later March quick weekend in Osaka. Was determined to go after the e'quake knowing Kansai is practically unaffected, but then after a fractured wrist that needs surgery and nuclear uncertainty - though it's far away, I've had already nearly 5x as much exposure to radiation as avg people and can't have much more w/o risking real health issues - may be its time to rethink it, now also given apparent (reported) threat of a big 'quake in Central Japan now.)
by RealHJ  

quakes 2011/3/16 15:27
The following is a map of earthquakes in Hawaii where you live...
http://tux.wr.usgs.gov
are you worried about it everyday?
Earthquakes are a way of life in many parts of the world, yet many of the people that live in these earthquake prone countries get to live to a very old age..indeed Japan as a high number of people over 100...

I have gone to Japan many times and the last thing I worry about is earthquakes.
by Monkey see (guest) rate this post as useful

Tokai earthquake 2011/3/16 19:47
The big "central Japan" earthquake that has been expected for years would affect the Tokai area, probably closer to Tokyo than Osaka. I'm pretty it's a completely different plate system to the one that caused the Tohoku earthquake.

You can read about Tokai earthquakes here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokai_earthquakes

As for predicting earthquakes, if that could be done with any accuracy probably Friday's earthquake would not have been the massive disaster that it was. Nobody knew it was coming, and that will most likely be the case when/if the Tokai earthquake happens too. In any case I haven't heard that it is any more likely to happen now than it was before.

by Sira (guest) rate this post as useful

missed word 2011/3/16 20:13
Sorry, "I'm pretty sure it's a completely different plate system..."
by Sira (guest) rate this post as useful

"exposure to radiation as avg people" 2011/3/17 00:26
RealHJ,

This morning, TV was telling us that some of the most phony kind of internet post or chain mail is likely to be something that starts with "a so and so person I know well told me that..."

So you are free to believe this or not, but the guy who's been cutting my hair for nearly 20 years just told me today that his father is a officially recognized "hibakusha" who was in the city of Nagasaki upon the A-bomb attack and he has not suffered any kind of major illness until this day. His uncle was so close that he got glass stabbed on his foot due to the A-bomb and is still healthy as heck.

At the moment, those within 10 to 20km radius from the affected nuclear power plants in Tohoku have been evacuated. Last night, Shizuoka in Tokai suffered a 6.4 magnitude earthquake (which was indeed predicted and notified to us a couple of minutes before it occured) and the nuclear power plant in Hamaoka was not affected.

Just thought you should know. Up to you to decide what to do.
by Uco (guest) rate this post as useful

prediction vs warning 2011/3/17 08:30
When I said that they can't yet predict earthquakes with any accuracy, I meant days or weeks in advance- they have been working on being able to do this for years, but without any real success yet apparently.

The Tohoku earthquake was also predicted (actually more warned about than predicted- I'm pretty sure I've heard that if you get one of those warnings something has already happened with the tectonic plates) up to about a minute in advance by the usual early warning systems, but 30 seconds or so doesn't give you a chance to do much more than turn off the gas and get under a table.

You can see videos on YouTube of the warning for Friday's quake with a countdown followed by things starting to shake if anyone's interested to see how it works.

I assumed from his questions that RealHJ was asking about more long-term predictions.
by Sira (guest) rate this post as useful

Thank You 2011/3/17 09:07
Thank You. This was very helpful and I got what I was looking for (re: Tokai likely big e'quake).

Here in Hawaii lots and lots of small and some mid-size quakes. At worst, knock out power for a few days (then I know to first fill bathtub w/ water while it still flows, have water filters, bottled water, non perishable food, flashights/flares, etc. distributed in every room). But, here tension does't build up for long. Typically quakes w/ new volcanic eruption on Hawai'i ("big island"). So, quite different from Japan or NW US/Canada where it builds up for 100s of years and then releases really big.
(Here the tension/stress build-up period is typically days, not years.)

I was just more concerned as I'd be travelling with a broken/painful wrist in a cast (less mobility in case of any problems/issues), so that is why was just also thinking about this re: my later March quick weekend trip to Osaka (for my birthday, actually after it - as right on my birthday I am having reconstrutive wrist surgery).
by RealHJ rate this post as useful

BTW 2011/3/17 09:09
BTW, why I was asking this: some NHK report online said that the 6.x quake earlier this week was not the big expected one for central Japan. That is why I was asking, to understand what that was referring to (and now I do - thanks!).
by RealHJ rate this post as useful

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