tokio, big quake in the near future?

hello,

i have read on japantoday.com that experts said there will be a large quake in the tokio area in the near future. there is a chance of 70% of a big one in the next four years.

what is your opinion on that? is tokio that safe, so that the quake won�Lt do as much damage as the last great tokai quakes caused? hope there won�Lt be another nuclear disaster....

snkfreak

It used to be a probability for a 30 year period (for a shindo intensity 6 earthquake). Now they reduced it to a 4 year period (for a magnitude M7 earthquake). The reason being that the 3.11 earthquake has made it more likely for another earthquake to happen. I assume it is true, although I also get the feeling that it includes an attempt to make people more aware and better prepared.

But what does M7 mean? M7 is a very strong earthquake, but it doesn't necessarily mean that it causes a lot of damage or deaths. It depends on many factors such as how deep the epicenter is, what time of the day it occurs, etc. Many M7 earthquakes do not cause a lot of damage. Only if many factors play badly together - like in Kobe, which was "only" M7.2 but near to the surface - it can actually cause widespread damage and deaths.

In other words: it doesn't mean that there is a 70% probability of a "killer earthquake" within the next 4 years. It just means that there is a 70% probability for a M7 earthquake.

And even if the earthquake does cause a lot of damage and death, the really badly affected areas are usually relatively small, and you would have to be very unfortunate to get injured or worse. The image given by the media is often deceiving because they naturally concentrate just on the badly hit areas.

If you take all the factors together, the probability to get hurt is very small. Maybe just as small as getting hurt in traffic accident. Did you know that 133 people got injured in traffic accidents in Tokyo yesterday alone?

is tokio that safe, so that the quake won�Lt do as much damage as the last great tokai quakes caused?

The Tokai Earthquake is different from the Kanto Earthquake. It is more affecting the Shizuoka/Aichi area than the Tokyo area. The last Kanto Earthquake killed 100,000 in 1923, because it hit during lunch hours when everybody had open fires on and the construction materials and standards were much worse than they are now. It is likely that the number of casualties is much lower in future earthquakes of the same intensity.

hope there won�Lt be another nuclear disaster....

That is very unlikely. Fukushima Daiichi was one of the oldest, worst protected and most dangerously located plants. Most other plants are newer and safer. And those that are not are likely to be kept shut down until they are improved. Furthermore, there are no nuclear plants really close to Tokyo.

You may wish to read this recent thread
http://www.japan-guide.com/forum/quereadisplay.html?0+88569

My understanding is that the media, including NHK and major newspapers, are telling us that we are not yet fully prepared for the great earthquake that is being predicted, and that is why we should prepare.

In other words, we can keep ourselves safe by having each and every one of us more prepared.

So what is my opinion on that? No, I don't think Tokio is safe, just as Kobe wasn't safe. So I always make sure there are enough supplies in my emergency kit, and I attend evacuation practices when I can. I occasionally remind my family the meeting point and procedure once our house should disappear. I know how you are supposed to or not supposed to come home from whatever place you've gone to, and I know how to collect information and I know how to get comfort. I also update my will, but that's not just for disasters. I can die or become a vegetable any day from various accidents and diseases.

I also am doing various things to prevent future nuclear disasters in my country, although there are no nuclear power plants in Greater Tokyo. But I must say I am most concerned about Manhattan, because they have a very old nuclear power plant nearby and they're not doing much about it.

But all in all, among my grandfather, father and I, we've suffered damages from Great Earthquakes 3 times so far already (Kanto Earthquake in Yokohama, Los Angeles Earthquake in Pasadena, Hanshin Earthquake in Ashiya) and yet we've survived, so I have my hopes.

Again, this kind of preparation will hopefully reduce the burden of others.

By the way...

as much damage as the last great tokai quakes caused

What last great tokai quake damages?

Well, certainly all this talk of eminent disaster can't be helping Japan's already battered tourism industry...

I honestly don't know if these university professors are sitting on viable information or are just trying to get attention because, as we all know, university professors love attention when they can get it...

Just today on the evening news there was yet another report on how now the Kansai area could be devastated by an earthquake/tsunami scenario. Maybe the entire country will sink?!

But, let's not forget, the key word here is "scenario". These are predictions that could be off by 100-1000 years.

Who could have predicted all the twisters in the USA and the terrible devastation they caused or the flooding hitting Australia as I type this.

The Earth is in a period of adjustment and recent climate events have done nothing but prove that NO region is safe from natural disaster.

Again, preparedness - have a GO BAG, know your exits - is the only answer. With a natural disaster, what you do - what you are able to do - in the first 30-60 seconds will determine your fate.

Yea, and don't forget to have own jet plane parked nearby, you must jump in 60 sec into it and fly off like Hollywood hero :)

More people are killed and/ or badly hurt, in any given year in any country, by car accidents than by any other causes, yet not too many people stop driving car because of the risk. .

I only use a car as passenger 2 times a week and every single time there are at least 2-4 "could have been an accident" due to selfish "me first" drivers that change lane, turn without signalling or run the red light!