Nikko Worth it in Late January

I'll be visiting Tokyo during the last week of January. I've done side-trips to Hakone, Kamakura, et al. in the past and the only place I haven't been is Nikko. I want to go but am debating whether the falls will be frozen over and the weather generally too poor to truly enjoy the area.

Also, I've been sifting through these boards for one definitive/best method way of getting from Shinjuku to Nikko, but it doesn't seem as easy as going to the other places I've been.

Can anyone help this Japan-loving nomad figure out what to do for the day?

whether the falls will be frozen over

This page can give you an idea of how wintery the scenery currently is:
http://www.nikko-japan.org/webcam.shtml

and the weather generally too poor to truly enjoy the area.

The weather cannot be accurately forecast for more than a couple of days. There is no sense in debating it now. The weather in Nikko does not tend to be too poor during winter. ut it is difficult to predict because the front between the generally-bad weather north of the mountains and the generally-good weather south of the mountains is often moving around the area of Nikko.

I've been sifting through these boards for one definitive/best method way of getting from Shinjuku to Nikko, but it doesn't seem as easy as going to the other places I've been.

You can search forever, because it doesn't exist. The best way depends on your preferences (mainly: comfort vs. cost). For comfort the direct limited express is best. For cost, travel via Asakusa is best:
http://www.japan-guide.com/e/e3805.html