Cherry Blossom Tokyo 2012

Hi,

I'm really looking forward to 2012 cherry blossom season as last year I had to cancel my trip. My route will be Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka with viewing at Ueno Park in Tokyo will be my first priority.

I know that there's no exact prediction of when is the precise timing of full bloom yet to be able to view the full bloom is my long life dream.

I had done quiet some research of full bloom occured within few years back particularly in Tokyo. I noticed that prior to 2011, the full bloom took place at Ueno Park was around 1st of Apr yet last year (2011) it was delayed until 8th of Apr. This really worries me as one week in advance planning of the trip prior to the bloom would be quite a disaster for what I'd expect on my Cherry Blossom trip. I saw the pics on Japan Guide Cherry Blossom report on first week of Apr 2011 and I saw nothing except buds along the branches :( .

I had some info from my friend who knows a local living in Tokyo. She said that according to Japan Weather Forcast, the full bloom would be around 6-8 of Apr. How accurate is the forcast esp it is still in Jan?

Thus, I would like to know the current weather especially in Tokyo whether it is colder than usual or the winter started late. Would there be a longer winter expected esp. after the tsunami? Was the autumn 2011 colder than usual?

I used to live in a country with four seasons and as locals, we could roughly predict those weather condition based on habitual occurence. Please someone esp. ones living in Tokyo could provide me with some insights.

Due to this, I have not booked any ticket and hotel since I really don't want to miss the blossoms (if I'm lucky, I'd really hope to see the full bloom...fingercross ;) ). Until when I could defer the booking of airplane and accommodation. Would late Feb be too late?

Thank you kindly for those who'd read my long message and reply back. I really appreciate it. I do hope that I could fulfill my long life dream seeing the full bloom of Cherry Blossom

cheers
Josie

http://www.japan-guide.com/forum/quereadisplay.html?0+88406

Today the Ministry of Weather (?) announced that 3/25 must be the blossom of Tokyo.

But be noted that, it is only for the cherry of SomeiYoshino.

Every year I saw cherry blossom of other kind of cherry around March12 around the Ghibli Museum Mitaka Tokyo.

One private weather company published a first forecast yesterday:
http://sakura.weathermap.jp/

The forecast is based on general long-term temperature forecasts, which in past years have sometimes been wrong. So, I don't put too much trust into it yet.

The large dates on the map refer to the date when the blossoms open. Full bloom and the best viewing time starts usually about 6-10 days after that. So, they predict a very average blooming year for 2012.

Thanks All for the assistance :)

I really appreciate it. Previously, when I heard from my friend that the initial forcast was 28th of March for the first bloom, I had planned to start booking for the 5th of April.

But now it seems that the bloom might start earlier than that, even similar to the pattern prior to 2011. Both the private and government forcasts are the same. Hmmmmmm.....

The last resort is could someone help with the current winter condition in Tokyo? Is it delayed or colder than usual? How about the autumn, was it colder than usual too?.

I hope with this info I could make up my mind and start to prepare for the bookings.

Cheers
Josie

But now it seems that the bloom might start earlier than that, even similar to the pattern prior to 2011. Both the private and government forcasts are the same. Hmmmmmm.....

The government is not issuing any forecasts anymore. There are three main sources for cherry blossom forecasts: 2 commercial companies and a somewhat government related organization. Only one private company has issued a forecast so far, and the others are unlikely to follow until later in February.

April 5th sounds like good timing considering the first forecast. But it is generally too early to accurately predict.

Hi Uji,

thanks so much for the info.

Since the government and the private forcast are the same, would it increase the percentage of the accuracy by more than 50%? or there'd be still high chances of inaccuracy since it's still quite early.


I don't think I'd be able to wait until late Feb's forcast as I'm afraid it'd be quite late for all the bookings. Though I believe that forcast could be more accurate as it approaches spring time. Yet, please kindly do post the link if the forcast would come out later on :)

Cheers
Josie

Josephine,

I too am returning to Japan during this period (March 21-April 13). I am traveling to Tokyo, Nagano, Kanazawa, and Kyoto. I purposely planned to be in Kyoto from March 30-April 13 in the hope of seeing the blossoms.

I would strongly advise you to start booking soon as many hotels are already sold out. I booked a few months ago and got the last room at two hotels where I always stay when I am in Tokyo and Kyoto (although if going to Kyoto, Osaka is a good base with less expensive options than Kyoto, but even hotels in Osaka are starting to fill up).

Unfortunately, the Cherry Blossom bloom is hard to predict so early and it is a gamble. I know how stressful it can be trying plan a trip around this season. This is why I chose the travel time frame that I did.

Best of luck and please think about starting to book to avoid disappointment.

Kind regards

Hi,

thanks for all the info ^^ really appreciate it.

I've made up my mind and made a booking this morning (and got an earlybird promo too from my local airline yeayyy). I decide to go on the 5th - 16 th of April. And spend 5 nights, 6days in Tokyo. So if the cherry blossoms early then I still could catch the best viewing time at least. But fingercross as no one can predict the weather, at least I've tried my best.

@Ohara, yes U're right lots of hotel are booked already via internet. But local travel agents in my country has not yet issued any price rate for hotels. even the packaged tour has just been issued. They will have the rate by end of Feb.

Alas, I could put my mind at ease. I've booked the ticket so now can concentrate further on the itinerary. I might book from the travel agency for hotels and JR Railpass.

cheers
Josie

Ohara, I just booked a trip for the exact same dates as yours, but we will be staying in western Honshu for the first part, and hopefully in the Kansai region for the last. I finally decided to use a travel agent in Japan for the last part, but he, too, is worried that many places are already full. I have told him that we are flexible and willing to visit other areas that are not on the top of the most popular list. Fingers crossed for a good blossom season, but I am looking forward to our first trip to Japan in any case!

ohh now I'm getting worried for the accommodation. Why are the travel agents in my country even still do not have the hotels price which means that there are sure some rooms left still? Even, the travel agent that I'm planning to use is actually a JAL (Japanese Airlines) Tour can not provide any price at the moment.

Why not book online?

I plan to stay at JR Hotels since I'm going to buy JR Railpass from the agent. there's a special rate for the hotel if we buy the pass.
It's the only tour agent selling the railpass in my area. I could buy it online but am worried it might not get delivered properly by the Post

@ Kitzkatz,

Funny, we are going during the exact same dates. You will fall in love with Japan. I went for the first time four years ago and have been back five times since. Indeed, I live for my trips to Japan. This will be my first Cherry Blossom trip. I hope that you have an amazing time!!!

@ Josephine,

I feel as though you are cutting things really close per accommodations!!! If you are able to book through a travel site such as Expedia, I would go ahead and book your accommodation. The beauty of booking through Expedia, or even Japanican, is that if you cancel your reservations at least 24-48 hours before the reservation date, you will get a full refund. At least you will have something booked and then if the travel agencies you are working with finally release their prices, etc., and you decide to book through the agency, you will have ample time to cancel the Internet reservations for a full refund. At least this way, you can secure something.

Surely if you buy the JR package online you will get an email confirmation confirming your reservations. I would imagine that you would even receive a confirmation number so that if your tickets, etc. get lost in the post (which seems unlikely), you will have proof of confirmation.

I would just book something soon!

The discounts you get for JR hotels with the Japan Rail Pass are often not as good than the discounts you get by booking through online websites such as Rakuten or Agoda.

Hi Uji,

thanks for the info. I'll look for the accommodation online then.

Josie, Try booking through japIcan.com. I book all my lodging through that website and I have never been disappointed. The discounts are really good. Good luck!

Andrea

It is actually Japanican.