Nozomi or Hikari

We will be travelling on May 2 Tokyo to Hakata.
We will not have reserved seats.
What are the better chances to a have a unreserved seat instead of standing. The Nozomi or the Hikari

Thanks

We will be travelling on May 2 Tokyo to Hakata.

Hikari trains do not run direct to Hakata, so you should definitely take the Nozomi. Also consider that the 2nd of May will be a high travel time. If possible I'd strongly suggest getting reserved seat. It costs roughly 1200 yen more than an unreserved seat and will be well worth it.

Alternatively, if you are making the return journey back to Tokyo, or further journeys beyond Hakata then a rail pass could pay off (with the caveat that you'd be limited to Hikari trains).

The equivalent of the Hikari is called the Sakura from Osaka to Hakata.
May 2 is prime Golden Week travel: I also strongly suggest using a reserved seat option, and reserving it well in advance.
If there is other travel involving distances consider a pass, when reservations are free.

Read first 3 May 2014 is same SAT.
http://www.tabi-o-ji.com/go/topics/20140411_seat-avail-prediction/?lan...

Take after noon Nozomi not quite impossible usual.
Nozomi unreserved only front 3(no.1,2,3) of 16 cars (65+100+85=)250seats total.
Car no.2 is bette all cars two doors each so count waiting passenger numbers under 50 already or not.
If over 30(not 50) wait next Nozomi for Hakata or take Nozomi not for Hakata
bc no window side seats are no good view by a lot of standing passengers on passage.

E seats(A,B,C+D,E) are viwing Mt.Fuji window side sold out first usual.
http://railway.jr-central.co.jp/train/shinkansen/detail_01_01/seat.htm....

All Hikari(as dep fr Tokyo) have unreserved 5(N700)/6(700) cars of 16 about 200/300 seats plus all train
but stop stations a lot no good and no operate until Hakata from Tokyo as one direct train
so Hikari and Hikari/Mizuho/Sakura(from Shin-Osaka or far) only possible.
Longest Hikari from Tokyo reached until Hiroshima but operation number only one
other most Hikari are until Okayama or Shin-Osaka usual.
http://vavvi.com/images/2015/01/5qbwg5dci2undy1klg1v.png

Next GW timetable update yet.
Reserved seat ticket sales starts just one month before 2 April 10:00am.

Any reason you don't want to fly? Even if you don't like LCCs (who will probably not be worth their name in that period anyway!) there is still ANA's "Experience Japan" fare, which for Tokyo/Fukuoka is a no-brainer over a regular Shinkansen seat (less time and less money).