Spring 2024 trip Tokyo hanami

Hi all, I understand the cherry blosson was particularly early in 2023.
I refer to these pages:
https://www.japan-guide.com/sakura/
https://www.japan-guide.com/e/e2011_when.html

What are the odds of it being this early again in 2024?
According to the above guide, "Avg. Best Viewing Late Mar - Early Apr"
So if I am planning to be mainly in Tokyo for more than 2 out of 3 weeks this time, and day-tripping from Tokyo, would I be quite safe if I arrived around March 22 and leave around April 12? These dates are tentative.
I will be based in Tokyo for most of the time.

Fifth trip to Japan, just returned from an Autumn trip, and have already been in Winter. As such now we want to see Spring :)
Aside from flower viewing in parks, this will mainly be a slower paced holiday where we will be spending time in malls, eating good food etc, so the flowers are the only thing we need to worry about in terms of timing.

Nobody can predict accurately this early, but I am planning a mid-March arrival myself. Seems like temperature is getting hotter every year.

Unfortunately where I live there are very few flights, and so I need to book ideally half a year in advance for anything but the most expensive ticket classes. So I can't wait for next year's forecast before booking.

Seeing the "typical" time for Tokyo is late March to early April, I based my timing around that for the last week of March and almost the first half of April.
This year was particularly early, and Tokyo opened on March 14. If that happens again, then I will be quite late but hope to still catch some of it.

According to the article on this site (https://www.japan-guide.com/e/e2011_when.html):
"Full bloom (mankai) is usually reached within about one week after the opening of the first blossoms (kaika). Another week later, the blooming peak is over and the blossoms are falling from the trees."
So would it be correct to say if it opened on March 14 this year, peak was on March 21 and lasted until March 28?

About the last part you asked: how long the flowers last depends on the temperatures and weather during that period, so you can�ft really say �ghow many days.�h If the temperature suddenly rises and stays relatively high, the blossoming will proceed faster.

But in any case, if I were planning for a trip to Tokyo for the cherry blossoms, I would aim for late March.

I know you mentioned you just came back from an autumn trip, to be completely honest having just spent a week in the crush of Kyoto as it approached peak I will never go back at that time again and I wouldnt wish it on a snake - as beautiful as it was.

I've been during hanami once about 10 years ago and caught the beginning or tail end of it a few times since, in fact when we were departing from Tokyo in early March this year a few trees were blossoming in Ueno on the way through, before it hit in full and people were having to reserve to even go in to parks. I cant see you getting the chill that you are wanting

Personally I reckon dont get too concerned about the dates, I would base myself somewhere out of the main hub (eg for Tokyo - Karuizawa which I have been told I over-recommend, for Kyoto - maybe Nara or Hikone) and then keep an eye on this site or the news and travel to the spots. There is always something hitting somewhere from mid-March until early/mid April, we were treated to fantastic sakura in Bessho Onsen quite late in April one year, the huge tree near the station there was in the falling phase and it was really pretty, and there are even trees in Kamikochi that bloom into May, although they are a little sparse.

As I went in mid October and left in mid November, I arrived too early for peak fall colors, but still got quite a fair bit. Kyoto was crowded but not too bad, I was there on the first week of November and did not get much fall colors. However for the other parts of the trip I got some here and there so it was not too disappointing. I already knew not to expect too much since the timing was too early. Had no choice but to go ahead since tickets already booked, and my schedule did not allow me to go any later.
On hindsight, arriving too early may have saved me the worst of the crowds.

This time however I want to get my timing right before I make my reservations. With my airline, tickets cost a lot of money to change or cancel.
As it is just two people and neither of us are driving, going around to anywhere outside Tokyo will be hard unless well covered by trains. Therefore, I am more interested in the hanami timing for tokyo city itself.

You have no control over when the flowers will peak, so the best bet is to do some advance research and be prepared to go to where the cherry blossoms are blooming when you get there. There are loads of places that are accessible by public transit (trains or in some cases buses or short cab rides) and have good sakura, most of which will not be insanely crowded like the most famous spots in Tokyo. So you can book your flights based on �gan average year�h but if you get skunked in Tokyo, then make some day trips to other locations.

Honestly, it is not at all difficult to find cherry blossoms in Japan during the time period when they bloom in tokyo in an average year. You might have to go north if the bloom is early.

Hanami is different from momiji-gari from the perspective of optimal timing.

If you are not there at the "peak", for Sakura it is better to be early than late.
I.e., 75% full bloom is much better than 25% past peak.

In case of autumn foliage viewing, a little past peak is better than a little before peak, in my opinion.