Japan Economy 2009?

Hello,

A lot of countries are suffering with a bad economy right now, but I have been seeing a couple posts here and there about how Japan will see a horrible economy in 2009. If this is true, would it be a bad time to go teach English in Japan?

Some people have said that there is always a market for English. I guess its ok if you teach at a school, but what about the eikaiwa and what not. Since people won't have jobs they won't have money for English lessons. Am I worrying over nothing?

Next year is forecasted to be the worst year for the Japanese economy in the last 100 years. Many if not most business would and will most likely never experience anything like it. At times when exports are down the government usually helps out the domestic construction industry but not this time. This combined with the "march 2009"* problem is going to see mass unemployment in Japan like nothing before.
This in turn means no money for English lessons. Get ready for the storm .

*after the last crash many new workers (around 50%) are contract and not directly employed. Many of these contracts will come to an end in March of next year (some law that was passed about contracts have to be renewed every 3 yrs) but most will not get renewed as a result of the expected situation.

I agree with the above. I would be very cautious about arriving in Japan early next year, even if you have a job lined up. As we saw with Nova, even having a job arranged in advance doesn't mean everything will be ok.

I think (and this is only my personal opinion), that ALT jobs will be more secure than eikaiwa jobs, as junior high schools etc are not going to go bankrupt and close, whereas many private eikaiwa (English conversation) schools are facing that possibility.

If you do come, make sure you have plenty of funds in case something goes wrong.

Yeah, going to 2009 doesn't seem like the best of times to try it out. Of course, as you mentioned earlier, if you were to go as part of the JET Program or something similar, you wouldn't feel much impact. If anything, the currency exchange rate would allow you to make a higher salary than in previous years.

However, if you are going as an eikaiwa teacher at a private school, I personally think that you ought to wait a little longer. While there is no guarantee that things will get much better in a year or so, I just don't see a reason why anybody should go when things are going to turn as badly as expected by many analysts. As the previous post also stated, businesses have to cut down on spending, families of employees are going to be impacted by smaller salaries, (and possibly no bonuses at all) to spend on non-necessities, etc.

Japan will always be there a couple years from now. No need to rush your decision!

as a foreigner you will likely not see much difference. the eikaiwa situation has been screwed up for a long time anyway - ever since NOVA went under it's been a lot worse as far as wages and job quality is concerned.

yes business is going to be down but japan is a modern CASH BASED nation. people use cash for everything. inflation also never seems to get bad in japan and i personally think that is going to continue.

the result? come here if you want to come! if you don't mind living outside of the cities you can find a job if you look for one. it may not be a big eikaiwa chain job but lots of private schools are looking for workers and will continue to in the future. just because things are getting tough does not mean english is going to disappear!

i would guess that staying wherever you are now is going to hurt you a hell of a lot more than it would for you to come stay in japan. japan has a few very stable industries that while they will be sized down, they will never close down entirely like the auto industries are going to in the west. the electronics, heavy equipment and auto industries in japan are as good as gold as far as i am concerned. yes a lot of the workers are temp workers and some will be cut but there will always be full time permanent workers that will just keep going to lessons. it will also be a good time to focus on getting college and high school aged students to come to your lessons.

if you own your own exporting business things will be golden if you can find someone who needs your products since the exchange rate will likely be favorable for the yen through the next few years against all other major currencies.

The newspapers and the TV make it look like the end of the world but those of us who have lived quite a few years already have seen several cycles of boom and bust and, guess what, we survived! that was nothing compared to what my parents went trough! At the end of WWII my mom .was pregnant and living alone as my dad was in a German jail and her parents couldn't get a special document to visit her. She even expected to be arrested too. Still she lived as usual, working part-time, going to movies, and bartering stuff to get the latest fashionable shoes.

It's definitely not as bad as the media makes it out to be as the last couple of posts have said. And I agree, where you are, it's probably going to get a whole lot worse than japan. It's like what winterwolf said in the recession topic, it's not like kids are begging on the streets for food or anything. It might not be the greatest idea to go there and start your own business or anything but for english teaching and other skills, you should be fine for the most part.

Don't believe everything the media says.

Thanks for the insight everyone, I'm not worried about it now

The economy has fallen off the cliff and this is just the beginning. The major companies are losing money and laying off thousands of employees. Repercussions will follow. Next year will be worse.

So if you don't a firm job offer before you come here, be prepared for a long job search and watch out for those who want to give you advice for some of your cash.

I'd wait at least 6 months and see how the situation has changed before jumping in. That way you could build up a bigger cash reserve--you'll need it--and a bigger Japanese vocabulary.

I'm having trouble understanding the "Don't believe what the media says" nonsense. If this were before the internet age, I'd understand. We only had a small handful of news sources available and you don't want to go off just a few select sources.

However, we are now in the internet age. We have hundreds of sources available, foreign and domestic, which have different analysts and ideas flowing out of them. Reading through Japanese papers (Nikkei, Yomiuri, Mainichi), other sources (WSJ, NYT, Reuters, Financial Times, etc.), and blogs, I've had trouble finding articles saying that this entire financial crisis is blown out of proportion and "it's not that bad". Sure everybody has their own opinions but I say you'd be better off staying alert and on your feet rather than sitting back and ignoring the information.

That being said, think long and hard before making the choice. The last thing you want to do is to go to Japan, waste a few months doing nothing, burn through your limited funds, and go back home with your tail between your legs. All I can say is that the situation right now is dire around the world right now, you shouldn't subject yourself in unnecessary risks and problems right now.

I never said he shouldn't be alert and just sit back. It's still a very important decision and should be taken with caution. And yes, the situation isn't looking promising (at least at first). But even so, as long as he's prepared and alert, there's really no reason to just not go thinking there will be no jobs, etc... Yes, there will be layoffs, but companies are always looking as well, and who knows, maybe it'll get better soon. It'll just take a little longer in finding a job.

Undoubtedly these are difficult times, however as one who has been here through the boom and bust of the 80's, I agree with Red Frog that these things are cyclical.

It is also difficult to compare Japan to other world economies, the average 20yr old has a savings of 2.5m Yen, 30yr olds are up to 6.5m Yen...that's the average... Most other countries (USA) that is their credit card/ student loan debt. Big difference.

For every media story about layoffs from Toyota, there are also financial reports of Japan industry locking in production material futures in Steel, Aluminum, Rubber, etc., as they are mostly cash rich companies (Toyota coming off of a 2.2 Trillion op profit in 2007) decry layoffs on one hand and stock up on materials on the other.

What is one of the fastest growing sectors of the US market at the moment ? Mail order. I went online to LL.Bean over Christmas to order a pair of slacks, in Japan (same LL.Bean slaks) it would have cost Y9,000 plus 1,500 shipping. Ordering via the US website, they were $32...or abt Y3,000 with international shipping Y1,600.

What's my point ?

The point is, it IS allot of media hype, sure there will be some shifts in employment but for every 100 workers laid off you hear about in the news, there are another 20+20+60 hired in other areas that are not getting the press. The recession is not something big and bad that is suddenly coming next year on the 6th of January, it is already here and has been for awhile... and in the mean time, in Japan, McDonalds, Disneyland, Starbucks are posting their best profits...EVER... these all rely on disposable income...as does teaching English.

Take a look at this list and see that it's not all that grim... Unless you work for GM.

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2008/full_l...

We thought people would be having the same problems here in England but a funny thing happened. Lots of people started to go back into education. Think about it, if your not earning mony anyway you mite as well become more imployable in that time. I would think that it is not the right time for a long corse with tests all at the end but short, learn the basics courses might do quite well!

Keep in mind though that this is easear to exploit for someone who is already established but on the other hand it may become alot cheeper to get set up if you time it right. Eather way it might be a good idea to market your lessons as making people more employable.

If you come here within 30 days, you could buy my stuff--still almost new. I'm leaving because eikawa is going down the tubes like the other companies. Good luck with your hunt.

Ya know, this is obviously not going to happen for a billion reasons, but at the end of the day money is only bits of paper and metal. The winnie the pooh thinkers would just say - "Why don't they just make more money and hand it out".
If only.